The Indianapolis Colts O/U Win Total
The Indianapolis Colts over/under win total for the 2022 regular season is 10 wins. Under 10 wins is -115 and over 10 wins is -105. After one season with Carson Wentz, the Colts decided to go in a different direction by trading for quarterback Matt Ryan. Ryan will become the fifth starting quarterback in as many seasons under head coach Frank Reich, so we know that they’ll be looking to have some continuity at the position moving forward. However, the Colts are not locked into a long-term contract with the quarterback and could move on from him if it does not work out. I think Ryan will be a great fit and the Colts are positioned to be a significant force in the AFC this year.
The Indianapolis offense is coming off a great season that ended, very disappointingly, without even a playoff appearance. The team crumbled down the stretch and lost two must-win games (at home to the Raiders and on the road against the Jaguars) to finish the season. Those last two games likely had some influence on the franchise’s decision to move on from Wentz in the offseason. Indianapolis should rebound from last season’s difficult end and be the best team in the AFC South this year. While it cannot be expected that Jonathan Taylor will average 5.5 yards per carry again this season; he should still be very lethal in the ground game. Two of the Colts best offensive linemen, guard Quenton Nelson and center Ryan Kelly, both struggled through 2021 for different reasons but still managed to be good enough to help Jonathan Taylor have a remarkable season. I expect them to both get back to their previous levels, which will make the offense even more potent.
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The Colts defense has undergone some changes in the offseason including the departure of defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus. In addition, perennial All-Pro linebacker Shaquille (Darius) Leonard will also miss games, which is a gigantic loss for the defense. To help along the defensive front the Colts traded for Yannick Ngakoue in the offseason and re-signed defensive end Tyquan Lewis. In addition, Indianapolis signed cornerback Stephon Gilmore to a two-year deal after trading CB Rock Ya-Sin in the Yannick Ngakoue trade. The Colts could have a top 10 defense with the players they now have, but it will be important for the offense to not put them in bad situations.
The Colts happen to benefit from playing in a division that is pretty weak. The Jaguars and Texans should not beat them. The Titans are good but the Colts should, at very worst, split their two games this season. Their schedule has difficult road matchups against the Broncos, Patriots, Raiders, and Cowboys. They will also host the Chiefs, Eagles, and Chargers. They are lucky to be in a weak division because they have a challenging schedule. I think that this is one of the more difficult win totals to decide but I will go with the Colts over 10 wins this season.
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