Will Seiya Suzuki continue to play in MLB? The stats show that he has similarities to Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso

Like a novelist nearing the end of their term, the authors behind Major League Baseball’s season will have to put an end to a lot of loose ends in a short period of time after the owner-imposed lockdown. is lifted. At that point, the main unresolved storylines will reach a settlement: the free bodies of Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, and Clayton Kershaw; disassembly of Oakland Athletics; and the arrival of Japanese midfielder Seiya Suzuki, who was ranked by CBS Sports as the 15th best free agent this winter.

Suzuki, 27, was arrested in limbo. His 30-day negotiation period (which began when the Hiroshima Toyo Carp of professional baseball team Nippon “posted” him for MLB review) will remain on hold until the account lockout is in effect. Suzuki and his agent chose not to sign the contract before retiring, and he didn’t get his hands on a recent TV appearance alongside former major league player Koji Uehara – even when Uehara pressed him about signing a contract with Boston Red Sox.

To most American fans, Suzuki is a man of mystery beyond what is grasped his baseball reference page. He is a career .309 / .402 / .541 attacking player who has launched 189 runs at home and made 102 touches. He first appeared on these sites in June 2020, when CBS Sports rates him as one of the top NPB players worth watching:

Suzuki has a comprehensive game. He has one of the brightest eyes in the league, and he has topped 25 home runs in each of the past four seasons. In terms of defence, he has a strong arm as a reminder that he was on the pitch as a young player. He’s had 24 assists since 2017; for comparison, Bryce Harper led the right wingers in the major league in that category last season and he has 22 assists in the same time frame.

Soon, Suzuki will be tasked with ending a recent drought that has kept Japan’s positional players out of professional tournaments. Except Shohei Ohtani (the last exception, in many ways), MLB . Teams gambled and lost in recent years with the likes of Yoshi Tsutsugo and Shogo Akiyama make a smooth transition. Reviewers say Suzuki’s swing and overall game is more likely to translate into an MLB game.

How justified is that belief, and how good can Suzuki be? To find answers to both ends, CBS Sports took Suzuki’s ball tracking data from an industry source and used it to generate a similarity score by comparing his outputs in several major categories (escape velocity, launch angle, etc.) with all the big- league leaders scoring at least 300 appearances last season.

Before going to the results, we must make a few notes. On top of that, as good as the NPB – and it’s the second best baseball league in the world – there’s a difference between posting these numbers there and posting them in the MLB. That should be much understood. Additionally, using single-season data for all the players involved is less accurate than using multiple seasons and weighting that data against recent times. For our purposes, we are willing to make that transaction.

Now, good hit: Suzuki hit an average exit speed of 91 mph and a 13.6-degree launch angle on his polished balls last season. About 45% of that was traveling at 95 mph or faster, and 26.5% of that was launched between 10 and 30 degrees. We don’t include chase or hit percentage in our analog score, but while we do analyze the data: he expanded his area on just 17% of the pitches he took. He saw and he beat 21% of his shots. (The averages for those metrics in our group of MLB players are 27.3 percent and 25 percent.)

With that, let’s reveal the 10 models that are most statistically similar to Suzuki:

It’s an interesting group. You have National League Player of the Year recipient, Bryce Harper; a worldwide slugger, in Pete Alonso; the World Series champion is about to have a breakout season, in Austin Riley; a number of once-stars, in Teoscar Hernández and Adolis García; and some other unexpected names, including the actor duo Ji-Man Choi and Trevor Larnach.

Often, it is easier to analyze an entire group than to pick and choose from individuals. In this case, Suzuki’s similar greats had an average OPS+ of 109 last season, suggesting he’s in the company of most above-average bats.

That’s not surprising based on what we’ve determined about Suzuki: he hits the ball hard; he has good communication; he rarely swings his hand at the ball; and he has an optimized launch angle. If you are building an ideal fisherman from scratch, you should take care to include all of those qualities before including them in the dish.

All of the above seems to bode well for Suzuki as he strives to become a stellar player in the major league. His strong arm element and presence on the right side of the field will make him a meaningful contributor on either side of the ball. (He’s not a threat to steal the base, suggesting his contributions will end there.)

As we explained recently, we expect Suzuki’s contract to be below his talent requirement as a tax on recent NPB managers’ failures. Even so, there’s still enough reason to think he could turn out to be one of the biggest bargains of the season – especially if most teams are more concerned with risk than reward.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/will-seiya-suzuki-keep-slugging-in-mlb-metrics-show-he-has-similarities-to-bryce-harper-and-pete-alonso/ Will Seiya Suzuki continue to play in MLB? The stats show that he has similarities to Bryce Harper and Pete Alonso

Charles Jones

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