BOSTON (CBS) – We’re starting again.
Just like last week, we are monitoring the possibility of a major coastal storm on Saturday. Apparently, last week’s storm was a flop, a forecast to come out midweek. From the outset, the odds seem in favor of a race track quite far south and east of New England, and the possibility of a complete miss is always high.
I don’t feel the same way this week.
While the path and origin of the storm were the same, coming out from the deep South and strengthening off the Carolinas, the initial odds for this storm seemed to lean more toward a hit for New England. A quick look at one of our more reliable weather models showed about a 60-70% chance of a snowfall larger than 6 inches in our area. That is a very high probability that is known in advance and is certainly remarkable.
I’m sure you’re saying to yourself, what does 60-70% chance mean? And how much bigger than 6”? All reasonable questions. I don’t necessarily like talking about probability and “what-if” but frankly anything more than that at this point would be irresponsible. My goal for the rest of this blog is basically to convey to you what we know, what we don’t know and what WILL happen here on Saturday with possible storm trails. out.
Let’s start with WHAT WE KNOW:
– This storm is likely a beast. Those are all signs of a major coastal storm with lots of energy, wind, and rainfall.
-Time frames for viewing are Friday and Saturday nights. Any impact we get will fall into that window.
-Storm is another fast mover. There’s nothing “downstream” to block it or slow it down, it will move quickly… maybe just a 6 to 12 hour maximum impact period.
– Our tides are building this weekend. They don’t peak until early next week, but on Saturday they’re certainly high enough (astronomically) that if a storm hits at high tide (at 8am on Saturday) it will cause major concern about the coast.
And now WHAT WE HAVE TO STILL DEFINITELY:
– Tracking the storm… is obviously extremely important and at this point, there are many scenarios on the table. Anything from “coastal motorbike taxi” meaning more rain than snow to a classic New England ski run (almost 40N/70W)… completely missed, just like last weekend.
-The amount of known / rain, obviously depends on the strength and path of the storm
-The index and severity of coastal flooding… also depends on the path/intensity
That’s a LOT to categorize, obviously, but pretty typical on Tuesday when looking ahead to a Saturday storm. There is a high/ceiling possibility with this storm. It was easily our strongest and most impactful storm of the season to date. The classic storm path will lead to strong northeasterly winds, near-white conditions, and could easily dump more than a foot of snow in some areas. But then again, while this scenario has been put in place, it’s still a long way from closing at this point. The “fragment” or “energy” to create this storm is still over the Pacific Ocean, south of Alaska right now. A lot has to happen in the coming days for things to go right (or wrong, depending on how you look at it).
The best we can do now is alert you to what MIGHT is coming and keep you updated as we hone the final solution in the coming days. And we will do it! Check back for updates here on CBSBoston.com as well as on WBZ-TV and CBS Boston News.
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/01/25/boston-weather-forecast-snow-storm-friday-saturday-massachusetts/ Watch for the possibility of a significant coastal blizzard late Friday through Saturday – CBS Boston