Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are hoping for redemption after failing to make it to the Super Bowl last season in what many consider to be “their year;” defeated by the Buccaneers in the conference championship match.
This year, they will host the San Francisco 49ers in the Split Round. While the Packers have traditionally been unstoppable at home, they didn’t do well in the post-season, especially when the weather turned freezing. However, we will talk about that later.
The 49ers are aiming to be the first team to beat Aaron Rodgers in the knockout stages four times in a row. However, things are different this time with the Packers keeping the No. 1 seed and bye. Meanwhile, the Niners are playing their third “must-win” game in a row.
So can the Niners come out and cover this six point spread? Or can they win outright?
Check out the updated odds for this Split Round battle, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Let’s start with a topic I’ve been very familiar with over the past two weeks: the Packers’ performance at home in the regular season versus season after season. It’s no secret that the Packers are the best home team in the NFL this year with a spotless 8-0 record at Lambeau Field. These are my favorite types of statistics because they are easy to understand and provide a concrete answer to an easy question.
However, this indicator does not tell the whole story.
When the post-season game came out, everything is not too cut and dry. Green Bay haven’t lost a home game in the knockout stages in 80 years, but since 2002, they’ve lost six home playoffs in the past 18 years. This includes losing to the Bucs last season.
In addition, I noticed that Packers struggled at home during playoffs in bad weather. I get the incorrect impression that these games are Packer’s bread and butter. When the temperature dropped below 32 degrees, the Packers were 4-3 SU in their last seven games and 3-3-1 ATS. When the line is six points or more, the Packer is 1-2 ATS and 1-2 ATS in the split round when playing in cold temperatures.
Now, none of this changes the fact that this season The Packers are the best team in the league, undefeated at home, and have a 13-4 record. The extra rest will also help, especially for a defense lacking David Bakhtiari and Jaire Alexander.
So how do the 49ers get past such a massive team? Keep doing what they do best. Run, run, then run again. While the defense focuses on trying to get to Jimmy G, their weakness will be exposed. The Packers are one of the worst stop-run defenses in the NFL and are ranked 28th when it comes to this game. They are 31st in the league in yards per warm-up. This means converted WR Deebo Samuel and Elijah Mitchell can run across this entire defence.
And, for all the weapons the Pacers have, the 49ers are not far behind. SF is fifth in DVOA and has the fifth most dangerous offensive pass in the NFL.
As long as Garoppolo can limit swaps and other mistakes, this game could be another nasty loss for the Packers at home in the knockout stages. Give me points for this game and I’ll probably sprinkle some on SF’s cashflow before the game even starts.
Pick: San Francisco 49ers +6 (-110)
https://fansided.com/betsided/posts/49ers-vs-packers-updated-prediction-and-odds-what-bettors-need-to-know?utm_source=RSS Updated Predictions and Odds between 49ers vs. Packers (What bettors need to know)