The 19-10 No. 25 Alabama Crimson Tide are bringing a two-game winning streak into their matchup with the 18-11 Texas A&M Aggies tonight at 7:00 p.m. EST.
Alabama has won five of six but is only 1-4 against the spread (ATS) over the last five, while the Aggies have a two-game winning streak of their own and have covered in three of four.
Is value at the Crimson Tide to cover the double-digit spread at home, or will the Aggies hold their own against an Alabama team that has struggled to knock out teams all year?
Here are the odds about WynnBET:
Well what do you know! We have a wedding of two of my favorite teams to bet on and against. Alabama has played against the competition all season and is a pathetic 4-16 ATS in the last 20, including 2-14 ATS in the last 16 as a favorite.
The Crimson Tide lacks focus on both ends. They are in the 29th percentile in defensive rating and turn the ball by one ton, ranks in the 1st (!!) percentile in revenue per game over the last five. As a reminder, the 100th percentile is good. 1. is bad. Very bad even.
On the other hand, we have a lively Aggies squad that is 6-3 ATS in their last nine as underdogs and 4-2 in their previous six on the road.
Texas A&M was built to beat Alabama. They rank in the 99th percentile for theft and have the seventh highest foreclosure rate in the country. Offensively, the Aggies rank 96th percentile in free throw attempts per game and 99th percentile in free throw shot percentage over their last five. That’s bad news for a Crimson Tide defense that pollutes a ton and ranks in the 14th percentile in this category.
This is Alabama’s home finals, but with a big game up against LSU, this might be a small preview. I love the value of A&M in getting Alabama to push the Crimson Tide down to 2-15 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite.
I bet a whole unit on A&M +10, but I also bet half a unit on their moneyline odds of +425. The stat is just too good to pass up on a team whose strengths specifically match Alabama’s weaknesses.
Choices: Full unit on Texas A&M +10 and half unit on +425
Follow all of Joe Summers’ betting tips here.
https://fansided.com/betsided/posts/texas-am-vs-alabama-prediction-and-odds-roll-with-aggies-to-exploit-matchup-advantages?utm_source=RSS Texas A&M vs. Alabama Prediction and Odds (Roll with Aggies)