BOSTON (CBS) – A large warship appears to be en route to southern New England.
This one has all the touches of a classic. All buzz words are playing. Snow storm. Bomb making. Blockbuster movie. You name it, we could see it on Saturday.
If you’ve been watching at home, over the past few days we’ve discussed three possible scenarios – a coastal trail (the one that passes through Cape Cod), a classic track (the complete ski trail). New England) and a line running further east. Now we’ve narrowed it down to two.
Say goodbye to the coastal motorcycling track and to any possibility of rain/mix outside the Cape and Nantucket. We narrowed the storm’s path to about 200 miles from around Nantucket to an area about 200 miles east. This is a ball game. The amount of wind and snow you will get is ultimately in that cone of uncertainty.
Scenario #1 “Classic Ski Trail”
60% chance of it happening (up from 50% on Wednesday)
Scenario #2 Farther east
40% chance of it happening (up from 25% on Wednesday)
Domestic roads are no longer an option, now reduced from 25% to 0.
Now here’s the tricky part – any track close to the benchmark (40N/70W, classical track) will produce pretty much the same conditions. Basically a full-fledged rage. Thick sheets of snow, persistent northeasterly winds, cause significant coastal damage and flooding.
In scenario 2 there are many possibilities. On the western edge of that envelope, we’ll still essentially be dealing with a major storm, but only moving the heaviest snow to the east a little. On the far eastern edge of that envelope, we’re now talking about a BIG divergence in the forecast – somewhere between the heaviest snow that’s taking place on the Cape to full slip, wide right. . Yes, this is still within the range of results, however small.
So that’s what’s at stake – A LOT. For the rest of this blog, we’ll assume a more likely scenario than a classic blizzard in southern New England and the effects it will bring.
Light snowfall began shortly after midnight Friday, mainly in far southeastern Massachusetts.
At dawn Saturday, light to moderate snow fell during Mass to the southeast and light north and west of Boston. Over the course of Saturday morning, the snow slowly increased in intensity from south to north.
If you must travel on a Saturday, do so as soon as possible. The storm’s strength came from noon to midnight Saturday. This is when we will begin to form thick bands of snow that will rotate around our area from south to north.
Snowfall rates in some of these bands can reach 1 to 3 inches per hour, completely blinding during strong northeasterly winds. We can sometimes worry about blizzard conditions, especially near the coastal communities of Essex, Suffolk, Plymouth and Bristol counties. Snow is forecast to blow and drift.
The snow will eventually begin to dwindle after midnight from west to east. I would say about 90% of the total storm build-up will be done by midnight, just some lighter sleet left in the early hours of Sunday morning.
60-75 mph along the entire coastline just south of Maine through Cape Cod and the Islands. This is the place most prone to power outages and wind gusts
40-55 miles per hour west of I-95 return about 495
25-40 mph past most Masses in the center and west.
Looks like we’ll avoid the worst-case scenario with this storm. The highest astronomical tide of the day occurs around 8 a.m., BEFORE the strongest winds arrive. We hit low tide in the early afternoon when the storm started to peak. The most worrying time is on Saturday night with high tides between 8 and 9 pm. This tide is almost 2 feet (astronomically) below high in the morning, which is very good news. However, I still predict at least minor to moderate flooding in all vulnerable coastal areas Saturday night.
HOW MUCH SUN?
On a classic track, the highest risk of tripping or more would be along and east of I-95 including Boston and much of southeastern Mass. The exception would be the pole beyond the Cape and Nantucket where heavier, wetter (less than a foot) snow is likely.
West of I-95 back to 495 and through most of Worcester County will see less snow but still high risk with at least 6 inches or more.
We’ll refine these totals and come up with a more precise range of numbers over the next 24 hours as forecast tracking becomes clearer.
The stakes are very high! Stay tuned to CBSBoston.com, WBZ-TV and CBS Boston News for updates. We have you insurance!
Follow Terry on Twitter @TerryWBZ
https://boston.cbslocal.com/2022/01/27/snow-storm-boston-weather-forecast-winter-weekend-noreaster-bombogenesis-blizzard-saturday-massachusetts-wbz/ Nor’easter Brings Snow and Possible Stormy Conditions Saturday – CBS Boston