Key seats in Sydney’s west and south to decide NSW election: political analysts

The road to victory in the NSW elections will depend on key seats in Sydney’s west and south.

Political analysts say battlefields in the south, southwest, west and northwest of the city are likely to decide the outcome of the March 25 poll.

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The fluctuations across the state’s 93 seats are unlikely to be consistent, as changing demographics and exiting members only affect a handful of voters, pollsters predict.

Labor needs to win five seats to form a government and hold seats it already comfortably holds.

Paramatta

Election analysts believe Parramatta’s key seat, held by the Liberal Party with 6.5 percent, will almost certainly turn red on March 25.

According to Antony Green, ABC’s chief elections analyst, the anti-government swing in the electorate in western Sydney could be significant, above the 6.5 per cent Labor needs to win.

“It’s going to be extremely difficult for the Liberal Party to hold,” Green said.

“Of all the seats, Labor probably has the best chance of winning.”

Parramatta has the state’s highest number of tenants, a diverse population and a large pool of young professionals, survey analyst and Redbridge Group director Kos Samaras told AAP.

Those sorts of demographics point to a strong Labor vote and for the seat to be held by the Liberals is an aberration, he said.

Labor insiders are also quietly confident of taking on Parramatta, saying the resignation of current Liberal MP Geoff Lee will help push her over the line.

Penrith

“Based on the federal results, the Liberals have a reasonable chance of holding this seat,” Green said.

“I think they probably stand a better chance at Penrith than at Parramatta.”

The Liberal Party retained Lindsay’s federal seat, which includes Penrith, in the last election with a 1.3 percent switch to Liberal MP Melissa McIntosh, bucking the national trend of a 3.7 percent switch to Labour.

Samaras said the western Sydney hotspot has become synonymous with self-made wealth and has a higher proportion of Australian-born voters, giving it an advantage over the coalition.

The tenure of former Liberal Minister Stuart Ayres is also giving Liberals a boost.

Former Penrith Mayor Karen McKeown is contesting the Labor seat.

“Penrith will be a close affair. You could see a situation where the Liberal Party can hold on to it, but only just,” Samaras says.

One Nation could cause problems for the Liberal Party in Penrith, where Belinda Ann McWilliams is contesting the seat for the smaller party.

“The one-nation vote largely cannibalizes the liberal primary,” says Samaras.

“The NSW Liberal primary is obviously down from the 2019 result,” he said.

“I’d say 60 to 70 per cent of that (burglary) got off their pile and went to parties like One Nation, not the Labor Party.”

Eastern Hills

The East Hills electorate is the most marginal seat of government and was never held by the Liberal Party until 2011.

Green believes holding East Hills will be particularly difficult for the coalition, adding that the last two elections have been marred by hate campaigns against the Labor Party candidate.

Labor insiders are less sure of their chances, citing Liberal MP Wendy Lindsay’s tenure.

Premier Dominic Perrottet has campaigned for the South Sydney seat alongside Lindsay on a number of occasions, including announcing $306m in municipal sports funding.

leppington

Leppington is a new constituency in Sydney’s outer west, comprising portions of five existing constituencies including Macquarie Fields, Liverpool, Camden, Mulgoa and Holsworthy.

Past voting booth data notionally makes the seat Labor and it will most likely fall to Labor on election night, Green believes.

But Samaras says voters in the region could go either way as neither party is familiar with the seat and anti-government swings could range from one percent to three percent.

He ultimately expects Labor to be able to get it over the line.

Camden Mayor and small business owner Therese Fedeli will contest the seat for the Liberal Party.

Nathan Hagarty, Liverpool Councilor and NSW Local Government Treasurer, represents Labour.

river stone

Riverstone includes the western suburbs of Sydney, Marsden Park and Rouse Hill.

It has been held by the government since Liberal MP Kevin Connolly took the seat in 2011.

Previously seen as a safe seat for the government, a reallocation and Connolly’s resignation put the seat back in winnable territory for Labor candidate Warren Kirby.

The representative of the NSW Liberals is local Mohit Kumar, a 19-year veteran of the NSW Police who currently works as a Police Prosecutor.

Winston Hills

Green says Winston Hills is a must for Labor if they hope to take government.

Formerly known as Seven Hills, the electorate has redrawn its boundaries since the 2019 election, reducing Seven Hills incumbent Mark Taylor’s lead to under six percent.

The area has a diverse population and is seen as winnable by Labor insiders, but it will still be difficult to knock out the incumbent Liberal member.

The Labor nominee is Parramatta deputy mayor and small business owner Sameer Pandey.

Holsworthy

The South Sydney seat has been held by Liberal MP Melanie Gibbons since 2015 but is contested by former Deputy Mayor Tina Ayyad after she defeated Gibbons in the pre-elections last year.

Labor candidate Mick Maroney is a high school teacher and former police officer and firefighter.