Hurdle 2021 preview & betting tips from Newbury
The race of the day on the first day of the Winter Festival in Newbury on Friday 26 November is the Ladbrokes Class 2 3m Race (3:00). Past winner Paisley Park tries to reclaim her crown in this stay-in race and comes to it at the back of a run unlike when it was successful two years ago.
Even though they all take the lead horse racing betting site didn’t hesitate to make him a favorite, only two of the eight market leaders ultimately delivered in this race. Many winners of the Long Distance Competition have become popular. The great Big Buck achieved this four years in a row (2009-12). Before that, Inglis Drever scored a hat-trick (2005, 2006 and 2007).
Baracouda and Unowhatimeanharry are other excellent players who have enjoyed more than one success at Newbury, so it’s entirely possible. The fitness race for Paisley Park and others who contested the West Yorkshire Hurdle last month may not be a clear advantage. There’s a 50-50 split with the eight winners of the Ultimate Long Run or landing the loot on reappearance and coming back from the run.
All but one in the six-man field this year have featured this season, so there’s no excuse. It usually takes a horse with an official rating of 150 or higher to win a Race, but there are several mares in this lineup. Of the seven most recent renewals, all but one were for horses aged six, seven or eight years old. Stats and trends just tell us a lot, so let’s see who the SportsLens experts prefer…
Why Paisley Park is a favorite in Long Distance Pitch betting
Emma Lavelle has actually been put on the map as a trainer by Paisley Park, who won the award in 2019. However, that aura of invincibility has disappeared, as the nine-year-old Oscar has just two wins in his next seven starts. Always vulnerable to a flat spot, as it gets older, Paisley Park takes longer to get over it.
He needed every yard of this ride on extremely heavy ground when he won back the Long Walk at Ascot last Christmas. Paisley Park was in second place behind Thyme Hill in the Long Run 12 months ago, but turned the tables here. Runner-up Philip Hobbs missed Newbury this time after a disappointing run in France earlier this month.
However, this is no gimmie for Paisley Park. In three starts from 2021 so far, he has either finished holding third place or been pulled up. It is clear that Lavelle’s stable star is simply not the old force. She reaches for the cheeks in the hope that they will bring Paisley Park back to life.
Even so, he met the Wetherby Conqueror Tireless with better terms than 6lb here. It gives Paisley Park every chance to reverse the shape with about five lengths to find. That’s the reason Bet 8/15 about him getting his crown back. However, Paisley Park looks like he wants to go further these days, and it could be a case of winning or trying a hurdle with something like the National Hunt Chase as a potential target.
Back Paisley Park with Betfred
Tired of an obvious danger
Although previously disappointing over 3m, Not tired may have run his best career when he landed the West Yorkshire Hurdle for the last time. Like Paisley Park at Lavelle, this eight-year-old mare from Schiaparelli flies the flag for Paul Webber’s stables. Tiredly has been behind a few rivals in a Liverpool Hurdle rematch at Aintree in her penultimate match of the previous term but has had a long campaign.
Connections tried her through different tips during the 2020/21 season, and perhaps the quick turn in Kempton wasn’t right for her. Indefatigable finished fourth behind Black Tears in the Mares’ Hurdle at Cheltenham Festival, and that form received a boost this week. My sister Sarah, about seven people short of fifth place, stepped up on the trip and achieved the same 3m listed competition at Kempton, where Indefatigable disappointed 12 months ago.
After the summer break, Indefatigable won both times she started breaking her maiden card on the Apartment. After staying at Pontefract, she achieved her first 2nd grade success at Wetherby. Despite being fined for it and meeting worse terms behind her back, Indefatigable was not exposed as a stayer. 100/30 with William Hill suggested she might have a say in the ending again here.
Bet on Indefatigable with William Hill
Improve Mrs. Milner alternately each way
Irish coach Paul Nolan has never had a runner in Newbury so far with Mrs. Milner Head over to Emerald Island to lean in with the loot of the Long Distance Hurdle. Flemensfirth’s six-year-old daughter has really improved this year. After making it to the Pertemps final at Cheltenham, Mrs Milner did a somersault at the Dublin Racing Festival.
However, she proved to be no worse off with her Leopardstown fall, landing over the massive handicap hurdle at Level 3 on Ryanair Chase day. Mrs. Milner added five stages in the Pertemps Finals. Just a stone bruise got her out of a crack at the highest level and Champion Stayers Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival.
Mrs. Milner looked as good as ever while watching a contest listed in Limerick last month. Her new record was mixed, so it was a good performance. Both the second and third mares behind her on the 2m 6f came out and won the next bout, so form wasn’t too bad.
It is possible that Mrs. Milner has not yet reached her ceiling as a lodger. Given her strong fitness background and the fact that she gained all-out weight from the field of Long Run, she looks well deserved to get a crack at this level. That’s why Bet365 is 6/1 about Mrs. Milner, who can continue to improve and evaluate a great alternative each way.
Bet on Mrs. Milner with Bet365
Other long-distance twist runners do not appeal
On adjusted ratings, Thomas Darby Come out in class with Paisley Park. However, Olly Murphy’s runner met the favorite of these terms at Wetherby and finished behind seven races. Thomas Darby may be entitled to that re-run, but there’s something to look out for.
Murphy tried a tongue tie for the first time, showing Bene Bene’s 8-year-old son breathing problems. Thomas Darby also did not win more than 2m outside the handicap company. The Long Distance Competition is more demanding, so the others have greater appeal. Thomas Darby also scored 6/1 with BoyleSports here.
Lisnagar Oscar failed to replicate his shocking success in 2020 Stayers’ Hurdle in the next six warm-ups. Coached by Rebecca Curtis, it looks like this eight-year-old son of Oscar has a lucky illness. He’s finished a disappointing seventh in the last 12 months, so the 13/2 top bid with Bet365 doesn’t seem worth it.
Towards the blind won a listed handicap on re-appearance last semester and met Mrs. Milner with better than 6lb. Coached by Nicky Henderson, the nine-year-old won just one of his next six starts. At this level, On The Blind Side is frequently found so that’s why he has double odds for the Ladbrokes Long Distance Race here.
Hurdle 2021 long distance tips and shortlist
- Mrs. Milner *****
- Paisley Park ****
- Not tired ****
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