How do the quarterfinals of the First Conference Championship work?

We all know that the NFL is a quarterback oriented league. Most Super Bowl champions are made by their elite signal callers.

But will they win their first run of the season? Or take time? Let’s analyze the numbers.

Take for example two midfielders out of four remaining ahead of Championship Weekend: Patrick Mahomes and Jimmy Garoppolo.

The Mahomes’ first AFC Championship featured a home-time extra-time loss to the New England Patriots, who failed to take the three points and advanced to the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, a year later, Jimmy G and the Niners beat the Green Bay Packers by 8 points, 37-20, an easy cover in his first Championship Weekend appearance.

These two midfielders will face different first timers. Let’s start with Joe Burrow, who joined as QB of the Cincinnati Bengals in his second season as center for the AFC North Champions. The No. 1 pick of 2020 is in a difficult position with Mahomes.

Historically, the midfielder was 16-18 to odds (ATS) in his first Conference Championship game.

The Bengals are underrated in the market against the backing AFC Champions Team Leaders, catch 7.5 points in WynnBET Sportsbookbut the first quarter-final of a touchdown or more was 5-2 ATS in the Conference Championship, which included two overall wins.

However, the same could be said for the other player making his Championship debut this weekend, Matthew Stafford. Stafford will be the seventh QB since 2000 to have their first Conference championship since 2000, and the results have not been good.

These quarterbacks went 2-4 ATS, much less common than Burrow’s career arc. So it’s common for teams that have acquired a quarterback or have run in the later stages of his career to go short in an attempt to land a Super Bowl berth. Rams is -3.5 at home against San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship.

Here are some trends to keep in mind when evaluating Sunday Conference Championship game pairs.