Home advantage is not an X-Factor factor when betting on spread this season

In sports, playing at home is arguably a big motivator. The home/home field advantage is supposed to be what gets you ahead. However, in the last month of NBA games, home advantage wasn’t as useful as you’d hope – at least for bettors.

Based on BETIQ, the home teams failed to score 55.5% of the games in December. Odds on the spread are usually set at -110. With this juice you will need to hit 55% to be profitable. In December, betting on top lane on every game will do the trick for you.

So how should you factor in the home field advantage? when betting on NBA?

Home advantage should be considered more on the money line than against the spread. In this season, the home teams are winning at a rate of 54.4%, which is close to the 55% required to be profitable.

Also, home advantage doesn’t really matter that much.

The home teams are taking the lead of 48.4% and are passing by at 48.7%. These numbers are closer to a coin flip and don’t make a significant difference in the long run.

On the other hand, in the 28 matches played since the beginning of 2022, the home team achieved a 66% win rate and the home team won straight with a rate of 57.1%. They are still covered at a rate of 48.4%.

Perhaps 2022 is the year for the home teams and beyond. However, it seems unlikely that home advantage will make a difference when betting on odds.