Giants’ risk-averse offense contributes to 4-8 . record

By contrast, the Giants’ next opponent ranks first in the NFL in terms of making decisions 4th and below with high leverage, according to the Key Calls Index. The Los Angeles Chargers managed to make 21 transitions from third or less, very few of which were in hopeless, late-game circumstances. Brandon Staley, the team’s first-year head coach, took 4th and 9th from the Chiefs’ 35-yard line with a draw with 48 seconds remaining in Week 3; The Chargers picked a penalty first and drove to score a touchdown to ensure a 30-24 surprise.

Switches on 4 and 7 and 4 and 8 when the Charger was in field goal range led to much-needed touchdowns in the 47-42 win over the Cleveland Browns. The Giants special team unit would probably run out onto the field without a ban in such situations.

The mathematics of decisions from the fourth down is contrary to conventional wisdom, which is contrary to common sense. Old coaches try to score in 4th and 2nd from the 5-yard line because they don’t trust their foul to win 2 yards, never realizing that a foul can’t be. winning the all-important 2 yards is also hard to come by 5. the line again, favoring an even bigger touchdown. The same old-fashioned illogicality applies to penalties in midfield: “Trust in defence” to get the ball back after a sloth is of no use if the foul cannot be trusted. win the required yard or two?

The fact that the Giants weren’t a good team from the start was taken into account in all of these calculations, as was the reliability of striker Graham Gano. The “spreadsheets” don’t assume that a team with Glennon in midfield will have the same probability of success as a team led by Tom Brady, Chargers rising star Justin Herbert or even a starter belonging to the Giants, Daniel Jones. In fact, the models would penalize Judge decisions even harsher if the Giants’ offense were more effective. The judge is being given a curve score based on his team’s shortcomings, but still fails.

Third full-back, Jake Fromm, will likely start for the Giants on Sunday because of Jones and Glennon injuries. The Judge may be tempted to become more conservative with Fromm down the center, which could trap the Giants in a spiral of failure in which they give up whatever prompted Fromm to rally and for Herbert more chance to beat them. That’s what happens when a team is philosophically inclined to surrender.

Judge rose through the ranks of the New England Patriots as a special team coordinator, and his fascination with the game of soccer would be seen as a charming traditionalist silliness. if the Giants are showing other signs of progress. Unfortunately, the franchise is coming to another fork. general manager Dave Gettleman Is Reportedly Considering Retirement, hazy decision about Jones and other major players, and Jason Garrett has been fired as an attack coordinator.

All the penalties and scoring attempts not only hindered victory but also made the Giants’ games more bleak seeing a seemingly insurmountable 4-point shortfall. Decisions fourth down are numerically incorrect, can’t be blamed for injuries, defective headphones or whatever, reflects badly on Judge as the Giants organization enters another phase of transformation.

That’s the trouble with mocking probability: By definition, the odds are always against you.