Don’t trust Duke to be the underdog in the NCAA Tournament

Duke was able to move forward despite some nervous moments against Michigan State in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but now a dangerous and rare situation resurfaces in the Sweet Round of 16 at Texas Tech.

Texas Tech may be 3rd seed while Duke is 2nd in the Western Region (+750 to win the Nationals) but the Red Raiders are the favorites by more than one point. In the final season of coach Mike Krzyzewski, the odds are at WynnBET Sportsbook are expecting the Blue Devils to appear in battle soon.

How has Duke done in recent history as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament? One of the most popular teams in college basketball is rarely installed as a dog, so let’s dive in and find out:

It doesn’t happen often but Duke has struggled as an underdog. The Blue Devils have been judged as a dog five times since 2003, going straight 1-4 (SU) and 2-2-1 against spread (ATS). Of course, this game says Duke will need to win to cover, so recent history isn’t in Coach K’s hands. When the Blues are the worse team, they often lose.

If we want to deal with specific situations, the Blue Devils have been at their worst outside of the Quarterfinals. The team did not lose in three non-Four Finals games as underdogs (0-2-1), but lost both times as underdogs in the National Semifinals and the Championship Match champion.

The Red Raiders opened as a favorite after the No. 1 defense in terms of adjusted defensive effectiveness, according to KenPom. While the team was far from being able to attack explosively, that team performed brilliantly on the inside. Overall, they are 61st in effective scoring and 22nd in terms of two points.

Both teams like to play offensively inside, Duke can form attack behind Paolo Banchero 6’10” and Mark Williams 7’1″, but the Red Raiders’ “invincible” defense is weak in the middle of the field. . The team allows little third point score when trying for two points, and will force the Blue Devils to win the perimeter.

This is setting up for a classic round of 16 Sweet, but history has shown that Texas Tech took Coach K home for the last time. Don’t trust Duke to be the underdog in the NCAA Tournament

John Verrall

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