College Football Playoff Rankings – No Movement at the Top, but Don’t Expect It to Continue

The top seven teams were unchanged in the College Football Playoff’s third standings on Tuesday, the fifth time that has happened in CFP history. While there could still be a shift in the final three rankings, history tells us what we’re seeing could be very close to what we get on Selection Day, December 5. .

Of the 28 semi-finalists, 21 have made it to the top four at this point in the season, and 26 have made it to the top six. No play-off team has ever been placed so low. more than ninth at this point in the season.

Number 8 too Notre Dame and number 9 Oklahoma State really have a chance?

Here are the biggest questions and most confusing scenarios remaining for the committee heading into Week 12:

What will happen if Oregon and Ohio State both end up with the same record?

Oregon’s September 11 win at Ohio State kept it against the Buckeyes for three straight weeks, but that doesn’t mean the head-to-head result will last. Ohio State’s remaining schedule strength, currently 7th in the nation, is not significantly better than Oregon’s 12th. Duck’s hardest fight left is when Utah on Saturday. If Ohio State ends up as a one-match Big Ten champion, it will beat four straight-ranked opponents, including in the championship matchup.

Oregon will beat three CFP Top 25 teams all season – including Ohio State. However, the committee proved that eye exams and indicators were the deciding factor in the ranking Michigan front the state of Michigan even though the Spartans won that game. Ohio State’s offensive efficiency is number 1 in the country, while Oregon is number 17. Defensively, they are similar (Oregon is number 30, Ohio State is number 39).

When two teams are comparable, the committee will use the head-to-head result as one of several draws. The question is whether the committee considers them equivalent, or if Ohio State’s offense and four straight wins over ranked opponents are enough to simply declare the Buckeyes better.

There is also a possibility – though more improbable – that Ohio State and Oregon both end up as two-loss conference champions.

It’s unlikely but conceivable that Oregon and Utah could split their respective teams on Saturday playing against each other. If Oregon loses to Utah, and Oregon State lose State of Arizona, which means Oregon and Utah have closed a rematch in the Pac-12 title.

And the congress guarantees a champion with at least two losses.

Meanwhile, Ohio State could receive its second loss of the season to Michigan State. If that happens, the Big Ten East will go into the final week of the regular season. In that scenario, Michigan would need to beat Ohio State and expect Penn State beat Michigan State. The Buckeyes will need to win and hope for the same.

What if Ohio State got the magic it needed – a win over Michigan and a Penn State win over Michigan State? And Oregon lost to Utah on Saturday but won the Pac-12?

The committee will have the same conversation about the outcome of the head-to-head, but both teams may be looking into it Alabama, Georgia, Cincinnati and Notre Dame – or the Big 12 champion.

What needs to happen for Notre Dame to reach the semi-finals?

The ideal scenario would be for Cincinnati to lose Houston in the American Athletics Conference championship game and there was more chaos than in the Power 5 title game.

Considering Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan are all still head-to-head, it’s realistic to think that Notre Dame will end up dancing at least two of them, assuming it ends 11-1. However, that is still not enough. The Irish need more help than Cincinnati – because they lost to the Bearcats. If Cincinnati lost the AAC championship match, it would have the same track record as Notre Dame and both would not have the congress title. Will the committee still respect the outcome of the confrontation?

Selection committee chairman Gary Barta on Tuesday said the group had not even discussed not honoring it up to this point.

“I’m just saying, in the areas where we’re having these conversations, looking at Ohio State and Michigan, Cincinnati is in between those two areas right now, there hasn’t been any conversation about it yet. Notre Dame is ahead of Cincinnati,” he said, “but again, next week will be a new week and we’ll be assessing how each of them will play and go from there.”

Notre Dame doesn’t have anything left on its schedule to impress the committee, so the team simply think the Irish are better based on what they see in the matches against Georgia Tech and Stanford, the opponent is 6-13 combinations.

To avoid losing that debate, the Irish need more help. They need a two-loss Pac-12 champion. They need a two-loss Big Ten champion. Or they need Georgia to beat Alabama so much that the committee can’t justify Tide losing two in the top four.

Above all, Notre Dame needs to look like a top team in its last two games.

Asked on Tuesday night what he could share about the committee discussions surrounding Notre Dame, Barta said the Irishman’s schedule for the second straight week.

“Well, they’ve had great wins – they’ve won again this week at Virginia“Barta said.” One of the things the committee did note was that Virginia didn’t have their starting quarterback, but they did go 9-1 – they have a very strong schedule power. They won Wisconsin and Purdue. Their loss, clearly, belonged to Cincinnati. We appreciate them very much. They continue to play good football. “

Who is the Big 12’s best hope?

Based on tonight’s standings, that’s Oklahoma State in 9th. The selection committee was impressed with the Cowboys’ defense, who finished 3rd in the country defensively and helped make up for a foul. average error.

“Oklahoma State defended, the committee was very appreciative of how they played defensively, one of the best defenses this year,” said Barta. “They beat Baylor, and that certainly resonated with the committee. And then Oklahoma State has played much better over the past few weeks.”

The Cowboys are 6th in ESPN’s Record Strength index and have the 10th toughest schedule remaining. While they have a loss to not be ranked State of Iowa, it helps the Cowboys that they beat the 11th place Baylor, and the number 13 Oklahoma remains the top 15 CFP group can continue to improve their resume.

The state of Oklahoma in Texas Technology on Saturday before facing Oklahoma at home in the regular-season final on Nov. 27. ESPN’s Soccer Strength Index gives the Cowboys a 53.9% chance of winning Bedlam. Oklahoma State could secure a spot in Saturday’s Big 12 title game with a win at Texas Tech and an Oklahoma win OR loss to Baylor. Oklahoma can take a spot in the Big 12 championship with victory over Iowa State and Baylor loses at Kansas State.

It’s still possible that Baylor who loses two games will win a spot in the Big 12. If Oklahoma loses either of the next two, Baylor will win the match by head-to-head. While that’s great for the Bears, it would be devastating for the Big 12’s playoffs in hopes of a two-loss champion.

ESPN’s FPI gives Baylor a 45% chance of winning the convention championship, behind Oklahoma State (88%) and Oklahoma (65%).

How does Cincinnati finish in the top four? And who can beat the Bearcats?

If Oregon loses to Utah on Saturday, the Bearcats will make history in a week as they become the first Group 5 team to break through the CFP top 4 in the 4th standings of the season. To stay there, they will likely have to finish as undefeated AAC champions.

If they lose, all bets will be void.

It would further legitimize the ability of Alabama and Georgia to claim the top two spots, no matter what happens in the SEC championship game. It will open the debate with Notre Dame. It will also give the Big 12 champion some hope. However, as long as the Bearcats continue to win, these rankings show that just one more annoyingly above them will make history.

What if Bama lost to Georgia in a close game?

Alabama could become the first two-loss team to finish in the top four – and that could come at the expense of the undefeated Bearcats. According to Allstate’s Playoff Predictions, there’s a 70% chance it’s Georgia 13-0 and 11-2 Alabama will finish in the top four.

Still, it should probably be a close game – unless there’s chaos elsewhere. For a team to finish in the top four without winning the conference title, the team would have to “definitively” consider it as one of the top four. Will a two-game losing Alabama without winning its league still usurp the one-loss Big 12 championship home? (Based on what we’ve seen so far? Probably so).

Alabama continues to be helped by the number of SEC teams ranked in the CFP Top 25, as it won ahead of 12th place Ole Miss and now the number 25 Mississippi State.

However, Alabama’s grip on #2 may not be as solid as it looks.

“I can tell you that 2, 3, and 4 are one area where the conversation goes on a little longer,” Barta said. “I mentioned earlier we didn’t learn much about Alabama this week but continued to be impressed with the way they played on both sides, but had a good conversation about where to book Alabama, Oregon. and where is Ohio State.” College Football Playoff Rankings – No Movement at the Top, but Don’t Expect It to Continue

Huynh Nguyen

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