College Football Betting – Championship Weekend

Friday

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Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (-1.5, 72.5) at UTSA Roadrunners, 7 ET

  • UTSA has covered six straight games when drawn from -3 to +3, including ATS 3-0 under Jeff Traylor (as of 2020).

  • Western Kentucky is 9-3 ATS this season (third best cover percentage in FBS), including five covers in a row.

  • Western Kentucky has included four straight games as a game favorite, tied for the second-longest running streak in FBS.

  • UTSA is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games after losing, including 3-1 ATS under Traylor.

  • Western Kentucky has covered five consecutive games against conference rivals, tied for the longest run at FBS (North Texas, Old Dominion).

  • Under is 5-1 in UTSA’s home games this season (1-5 in air games).

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No. 10 Oregon Duck compared to the number 14 Utah Utes (-3, 59.5), 8 ET on ABC

  • Utah is 27-13-1 ATS in games against conference opponents over the past five seasons (all under Kyle Whittingham), the second-best cover percentage in FBS for that period. That includes 22-11 ATS as a favorite.

  • Four games in a row involving Oregon against an AP ranked opponent had a lower total score.

  • Oregon is 6-2 ATS when capped from -3 to +3 since 2018, Mario Cristobal’s first full season as head coach.

Saturday

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Number 9 Baylor Bears compared to the number 5 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-5,5, 46.5), Noon ET on ABC

  • Oklahoma State is 9-2-1 ATS this season, the second best coverage in FBS behind Michigan (10-2 ATS). That includes a 6-2-1 ATS favorite and an 8-0-1 ATS ahead of conference rivals.

  • Oklahoma State is 15-6-1 ATS ahead of ranked teams in the previous five seasons (all under Mike Gundy). Baylor is 12-5 ATS against ranked opponents in that same span, including 5-1 ATS under Dave Aranda (as of 2020).

  • Oklahoma State is 18-7-3 against Baylor since the 1978 FBS/FCS split, including 11-6 ATS under Gundy (since 2005).

  • Under is 12-4 in December games involving Oklahoma State under Gundy’s lead. The Cowboys covered 11 of those 16 games.

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Kent State Golden Flashing (-3, 74) vs Northern Illinois Huskies, Noon ET on ESPN

  • Kent State is the 5-1 ATS favorite this season.

  • Kent State is 1-4 ATS against teams with a winning record this season.

  • The scoreline is 5-0-1 in Northern Illinois’ last six games (over 2-4 in the first six this season).

  • Northern Illinois lost seven games in a row in December (0-2 ATS to Hammock).

  • Kent State is 11-5 ATS in games in November or later under Sean Lewis (as of 2018). The score was also 12-4 in those games.

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Utah State Aggies in 19th place The Aztecs of San Diego State (-6, 50), 3 ET

  • Wyoming is winning 5-1 ATS in road games this season.

  • Wyoming has played in five of the last six games after starting the 3-3 ATS season.

  • The state of San Diego has included four of the five most recent meetings.

  • The bottom score is 10-4 in San Diego State games against group stage opponents since 2020, the start of Brady Hoke’s second stint with the team.

  • Underscore is 8-2 in games involving San Diego State in November or later as of 2020.

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Appalachian State Climbers (-3, 53) at 20 Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns, 3:30 ET on ESPN

  • Appalachian State is 4-1 ATS in road games this season.

  • This will be Louisiana’s third time as a guest under Billy Napier (since 2018). Ragin’ Cajuns won the previous two games outright.

  • Under is 5-1 in home games in Louisiana this season (9-3 overall).

  • Appalachian State has played in five of its last six games after starting the season 3-3 ATS.

  • Appalachian State won 2-19 against AP ranked opponents all the time. One of those wins was this season against 14 Coastal Carolina.

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No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs (-6,5, 50) vs. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide, 4 ET

  • This will be the biggest underdog team Alabama has under Nick Saban (since 2007) since giving up 10 points to No. 2 Florida in the 2008 SEC Championship. The Crimson Tide gave six or more four points. previous times under Saban and was 1-2-1 ATS in those games. Overall, Alabama is 5-3-1 ATS when underreported by Saban.

  • This would mark Alabama’s 92-game record as a single-match favorite, the longest streak by any team since the 1978 FBS/FCS tournament.

  • Nick Saban completely beat Kirby Smart 3-0, all favorites (1-2 ATS).

  • Under is 4-0 in games featuring Georgia against AP ranked opponents this season.

  • The total has passed eight of the last nine meetings.

  • Alabama has lost three games in a row against its group stage opponents. The Crimson Tide hasn’t had four straight ATS losses against conference rivals since a six-game streak from 2002-03.

  • Georgia is 7-3 ATS in games in December or later under Kirby Smart (as of 2016).

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No. 16 Houston cougar in 3rd place Cincinnati Bearcats (-10.5, 53.5), 4 ET on ABC

  • Houston is 7-1 ATS as a team under double digits since 2015, including 3-1 ATS under Dana Holgorsen (as of 2019).

  • Cincinnati is 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record this season.

  • Houston is 15-5 ATS against AP top 5 teams since the 1978 FBS/FCS, the best coverage in FBS for that period (10 games min).

  • Houston is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 games as an underdog, including 5-2 ATS under Holgorsen.

  • Houston has lost five games in a row in December or later.

  • Underdog is 11-2 in Cincinnati games against AP ranked opponents under Luke Fickell (since 2017).

  • The score is 5-1 in Houston’s road games this season (2-3 in home games).

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No. 2 Michigan Wolverines (-10.5, 43.5) vs. 15 Iowa Hawkeyes, 8 ET

  • Michigan is 10-2 ATS this season, the best coverage ratio in FBS. That includes the 5-1 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

  • Iowa has gone through seven straight games against AP ranked opponents, and also has the second-longest running streak in FBS against Fresno State. Tulsa has included 11 such consecutive games.

  • The scoreline is 5-1 in games involving Michigan against an AP-rated opponent over the past two seasons.

  • Iowa is 11-5 ATS ahead of AP top 5 teams under Kirk Ferentz (since 1999), the fourth best coverage in FBS for that period. That includes an ATS score of 7-1 as of 2010.

  • Iowa is 14-6 ATS in double-digit status since 2000.

  • Iowa hit 14-6 ATS in games in December or later under Ferentz, including five consecutive covers as of 2017.

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No.17 Pittsburgh Panthers (-3, 72.5) vs. 18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 8 ET on ABC

  • This would be the smallest margin in an ACC championship as No. 12 Georgia Tech was a 1-point favorite against No. 25 Clemson in 2009.

  • Pittsburgh is 9-3 ATS this season (all favorites), and ranks for the third best cover percentage on FBS (North Texas, Western Kentucky, Notre Dame).

  • Pittsburgh is 11-5-2 ATS when the line is between -3 and +3 under Pat Narduzzi (since 2015).

  • Wake Forest is 15-5 ATS against AP ranked opponents under Dave Clawson (since 2014), including 3-0 ATS as of 2020.

  • The score is 6-1 in games involving Wake Forest in November or later as of 2020.

  • This would be the highest total score in a game involving Pittsburgh under Narduzzi’s lead. The current high is 72 on November 11, 2021 against North Carolina, which is lower (53).

https://www.espn.com/chalk/story/_/id/32767306/college-football-betting-nuggets-conference-championship-weekend College Football Betting – Championship Weekend

John Verrall

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