Best college basketball bets for today, March 1

A good start to the final week of the regular season with a 2-1 scoreline overnight, but still a slight drop in the best bets column. Let’s try and regain the positivity when we step into the home field.

Here are my four best bets for Tuesday’s college basketball card, including a bot lane, a bot lane and a two-team parlay.

If I add more rounds, they will be posted on my bet stamp, which you can find herebut in the meantime, let’s get to the plays, with the help of WynnBET Sportsbook:

Column records: 77-74-3 (-1.35 units)

I bet on Miami on Saturday afternoon, got a great result, and lost by hook despite being in the lead for most of the first half. The team lost to Toledo by 15 points in a game that started off a bad Saturday for your boy.

I’ll go back to the well, though, giving Miami a complete win at this game against the worst offense in the MAC in Central Michigan. Yes, it’s on the road, but Miami has far superior offensive power, ranking in the top half of ShotQuality’s adjusted offensive rating. Their record, according to SQ, is 16-13 even though they hit the 12-17 mark. In RedHawks’ loss to CMU, Chippewas shot 13-24 points away, scoring 1.19 points per possession despite having the worst effective scoring rate in the conference game. I’m looking forward to the away team’s recovery and a win.

I’ll pair them up with Villanova, who will take care of the business with the Providence team that finished the regular season championship in the Big East and possibly give some of the key contributors a break. Nova is the -525 favorite and the highest rated Big East team, I think they got here easily.

ENTER: Miami (OH) / Villanova ML (-108)

From this morning’s game preview:

Neither team is adept at squeezing turnovers, with each team eventually five in the conference game, but the Spartans really have enough caliber to take on the Wolverines big man Hunter Dickinson. 7-foot tall Marcus Bingham is a great belt guard and the Spartan allows for the 32nd lowest on-court goal ratio at the belt this season, each Haslemetrics, against an elite normal attack by Michigan inside. Dickinson et al. is the top 10 at the belt this season.

Meanwhile, Michigan’s defense has struggled this season, unable to slow anyone in the outer ring, other than the top 200 at that mark. This team is good at defense, but they don’t show a hole in Michigan State’s defense (Tom Izzo’s team is the worst of the Big Ten with a rotation rate of nearly 20%). The team is also ready to let Michigan State run, their best source of attack, the Wolverines need to slow this pace and avoid a meet.

While the situational points point toward Michigan, desperate for a league-sized win and revenge after losing 16 at East Lansing in January, I couldn’t hit this spread. The Wolverines have been underwhelming throughout the season, especially at home with a 7-13 scoreline against spread difference. I like the Spartans keeping it within two properties.

PICK: Michigan State +4.5

Houston’s defense will overwhelm the Bearcats on Tuesday night. The team is third in effective goal percentage in defense and the away team is 293rd in that stat in terms of offensive ability. Your team made a lot of isolated plays but lacked the nimble handling to beat Houston’s defense against high balls.

In the end, Cincy took so many three people that they couldn’t get inside. The club is in the top 100 in terms of 3 points and average in recovery rate.

However, Miller has his team playing well on the defensive side, top 10 natioanlly in terms of defense by two points. That would actually set up pretty well against a Houston team generating a lot of points from the inside.

Houston loves running in transition, but Cincy did a good job of limiting that attack and turning it into a half-court style match.

Looking back at the early February game, the game overcame a total finish of 131.5 with an overall score of 80-58. That match was about a month ago, but this total has changed too much in my opinion. The Cougars may have fouled #1 in AAC, but hit 61% trying for two points in that game against the interior of the lauded Bearcats. Not to mention, the two teams combined took 74% of the 35 free throws even though they were under 68% all year.

I’m going to reduce this total increase and will hit the lower part of the game so it’s more of a half court style. I bet under 135.5, which you can find in our game preview from this morningbut I found this value reduced to 134.5

PICK: UNDER 135, play to 134.5

It may not be pleasant, but my favorite play is the underplay between two teams that are already busy on the road and can be a little fair in a physical match.

The first meeting between the two ended 150 and resulted in a 72-63 win for the Wildcats and I see a similar line coming Tuesday night. While Arizona plays fast and wants to speed things up, USC is great at limiting forward opportunities and has the best inside defense in PAC 12 play.

Meanwhile, Arizona also excelled internally, placing second in the PAC 12 game and each team three points ahead of their opponent, with the two teams placing first and third in the three-point allowable ratio, respectively.

The Wildcats may be vulnerable again with a bad schedule position, but I’m more confident playing under USC’s slow-paced and both teams are likely to close inside. It was clear that both teams played sloppily in the PAC-12 play; USC ranks 7th in revenue ratio while Arizona ranks 10th.

Read more about Arizona vs. USC in our game preview!

PICK: BELOW 150.5, play to 149

You can find all the bets of Reed THIS! Best college basketball bets for today, March 1

John Verrall

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