Baseball Hall of Fame 2023 Announcement: Date, Time, TV Channels, Watch Online, Storylines, Prediction

The results of the BBWAA voting for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame class will be announced Tuesday night. Much of the fascination with this vote will revolve around the chance Scott Rolen wins, the wins made by several players (particularly Todd Helton) and how Alex Rodríguez and Carlos Beltrán fare.

the The full 2023 ballot can be viewed here. The Rules: A player can be put on the ballot after five years of retirement. Players who receive at least 75 percent of returned ballots from qualified BBWAA voters will be granted entry to the Hall of Fame. Anyone who achieves less than five percent is eliminated. Those between five and 75 percent can remain on the ballot for up to 10 years. BBWAA members who are active, in good standing, and have been doing so for at least 10 years can choose between zero and 10 players each year.

Regardless of what goes down in the BBWAA vote, there’s already a new Hall of Famer in the class of 2023: Fred McGriff. He made it about them Contemporary Era Committee voting during winter sessions.

Here are the details for Tuesday’s selection show:

Baseball Hall of Fame class of 2023 announcement

• time: 6 p.m. ET | date: Tuesday 24 January
• TV channel: MLB Network (coverage begins at 4:00 p.m. ET and lasts four hours)
• Live broadcast: fuboTV (try for free)

Below are six storylines to watch out for when Tuesday night’s vote numbers are revealed. NOTE: When I mention polling, I mean it Ballot tracker by Ryan Thibodaux (it’s not really a poll, more like collecting ballots, but this is the easiest way to put it succinctly).

1. Is this the year of Rolen?

Scott Rolen’s rise in voting has an “if, not if” feel to it. It’s actually more than just a feeling. Last month, I went through recent historical voting trends to show that Rolen will come in with an overwhelming probability.

However, it still matters if it’s this year or next or the year after. First off, from a human perspective, Rolen is certainly looking forward to getting in, and if he just misses the cut it’s another year of waiting. In terms of voting in the Hall of Fame, by and large, it’s a spot on the ballot, and erasing it helps every other legitimate candidate. Keep in mind that voters are limited to a maximum of 10 seats on their ballot, and some Small Hall voters are artificially limiting themselves beyond that. In short, the quicker Rolen gets off the pick, the easier it is for everyone else to make a profit – including next year’s newcomers like Adrián Beltré, Joe Mauer and Chase Utley.

Polls show Rolen has a good chance of hitting the required 75 percent, but he seems to have a pretty good chance of staying just under. Last year it was 71 percent in polls, and the actual vote showed it was 63.2 percent. Right now he’s 79.2 percent in polls, and if there’s a similar lack of private ballots, he’ll be just a few percent shy about making it.

As I said, it’s going to be tight. This is where most of the drama for Tuesday night’s vote unfolds.

2. Still low numbers for A-Rod?

A pole has a polarizing case. We already know that. I firmly believe this is a huge year for the choice of A-Rod. If he makes big wins, chances are he’ll make the hall down the street. If he doesn’t, he’ll likely end up in Bond’s country. I went much deeper into the theory here.

The current numbers do not bode well for A-Rod. Polls show he’s gained just two votes compared to last year (when he was down 161 votes before anchoring). It’s always possible that there might be a cache of non-public votes for A-Rod, but last year there wasn’t. Right now it looks like he won’t hit 40 percent, and if he does, it’s hard to imagine him gaining enough ground to hit 75 percent.

3. How is the sign-theft scandal affecting Beltrán?

For years we have had a general view of how players associated with PEDs would generally be treated with the Election Board. In Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens we have two all-time greats who never tested positive during testing but were closely linked. With Rafael Palmeiro and Manny Ramirez, we had players who posted offensive numbers in the Hall of Fame but tested positive. In A-Rod, well, you know.

However, we don’t have a good comparison with this voting body for Beltrán, and it may provide a roadmap for how things will play out for Jose Altuve and others going forward. Here is my lengthy discussion of his case and the sign-theft scandal.

Polls show him about 15 percent ahead of A-Rod at 55.7 to 40.4, so that’s probably a good sign for Beltrán. There were some voters who wrote that they withheld a vote for him this year but would consider doing so again next year. If he gets about 50 percent of the votes, I guess he has a chance of getting in later. If he lands closer to A-Rod, say low 40, he’s probably at it for a long 10 years.

Regardless of whether or not Rolen gets in, this is the story that will grab my attention the most on Tuesday night.

4. Helton on the way

But what if Rolen isn’t the only player with a chance of making it?

Last year, Helton got 52 percent of the vote compared to Rolen’s 63.2 percent, but Helton has made significant gains. He has already gained 32 votes and actually passed Rolen with 79.8 percent. It would be an amazing leap forward, but it really does seem like the electoral body as a whole is heavily geared towards Helton’s candidacy.

His case is a bit polarizing, but not for scandalous reasons. He played his entire career at Coors Field as his home. I’ve investigated the matter here.

If there’s a big surprise Tuesday night, Helton will be inducted into the Hall of Famer.

5. Watch for profits

Besides the above, let’s keep an eye on the following players:

• Bill Wagner: After jumping nearly 30 points in two years to 46.4 for the 2021 vote, Wagner made more modest gains to 51 percent last year. However, polls show he has garnered 29 votes this election cycle. This is his eighth year and a great chance to leap into realism with all the ballots from the last election cycle.
• Gary Sheffield: After a huge two-year jump to 40.6 in the 2021 vote, Sheffield stagnated again at exactly 40.6 percent. This is his ninth year on the ballot and he’ll need a big jump to have a consistent long-range shot next year. Polls show 26 votes have been won so far, so maybe he’s on his way, although realistically the lack of wins over the past year has doomed him.
• Andrew Jones: Little more than an afterthought that lingered on the ballot for his first two years, Jones garnered 19.4 percent in 2020, 33.9 percent in 2021 and 41.1 percent last year. Now, in his sixth ballot, the tracker has awarded him 24 more votes. It looks like he’s surpassing 50 percent or maybe even 55? If the latter is the case, he is well on his way to eventual anchoring.
• Bobby Abreu: He received just 8.6 percent of the vote last year but has won 12 votes in polls so far. It’s his fourth try.
• Andy Pettitte: In his fourth ballot last year, Pettitte received 10.7 percent of the vote and won 13 votes this time.
• Jimmy Rollins: He got 9.4 percent of the vote in his debut last year and gained five votes this time.
• Markus Buehrle: He stayed above the threshold in each of his first two attempts (5.8 percent last year) and won nine votes.

Wagner and Jones would be the big ones to watch, while it’s possible Buehrle and Rollins are barely staying alive.

6. Who crashes?

• jeff kent It’s his swan song; his 10th and final year. Even with a decent increase in polling data over the last year, it’s very unlikely he’ll even reach 60 percent. I detailed here that his case is likely to fare much better on committee and that this is a blessing in disguise for him.
• Torii Hunter: At just 5.3 percent last year on his first attempt, Hunter barely survived. Its public gains are modest enough to believe there’s a chance it will fall below 5 percent.
• Francisco Rodriguez: It’s K-Rod’s first year and looks set to survive, but it’s likely to be very close. Polls show him about nine percent, but up close I’m guessing he loses some before the vote is announced.
• Omar Vizquel: He will most likely survive. He votes with K-Rod, but the remaining Vizquel voters are almost all private. He gained nearly 14 percent between ballot tracking and actual voting results last year. However, he’s still dead in the water for his chances of making the hall, here in his sixth attempt.
• None of the remaining first-timers on the ballot have received a public vote to date. those are Bronson Arroyo, Matt Cain, RA Dickey, Jacoby Ellsbury, Andre Ethier, JJ Hardy, John Lackey, Mike Naples, Johnny Peralta, Huston Street, Jared Weber and Jayson Werth. Even if some of them get a vote or two, they are all unique.

Of those near the 5 percent threshold, I predict Hunter will fall while K-Rod and Vizquel survive.

The only other person on the ballot I haven’t mentioned is Manny Ramirez. He’s very likely staying in no man’s land with Vizquel, albeit for different reasons. He got 28.9 percent of the vote last year and his polls show stagnation.

7. Prediction

Back on November 22nd, I predicted this class would be McGriff and Rolen. I nailed the committee vote when McGriff went in alone, so we’re going two to two to get the BBWAA one right too. Rolen goes in and that’s it for this tuning.