The PGA Tour season is starting to really get into the swing of things (pun intended).
This week’s Arnold Palmer Invitational at Bay Hill will be the warm-up for one of the biggest tournaments of the year, the Players Championship, which will take place next week.
Many of golf’s top names will compete this week, but the defending champion, Bryson DeChambeau, has withdrawn due to injury.
Let’s start by looking at the top 10 golfers on this week’s odds to win list, courtesy of WynnBET Sportsbook.
Bay Hill is one of the hardest courses on the PGA Tour schedule. It is about 7,466 yards long and it plays like a Par 72. Four Par 5s are usually obtainable, but Par 3s and 4s are both longer than average. In fact, all four Par 3s measure at 199 feet or so. Being able to score in Par 5 and walking with the analysts in Par 3s will be crucial this week.
Given the Par 4’s playing time and the importance of the Par 5, the power of the tee shot is paramount at Bay Hill. That’s exactly why and how Bryson DeChambeau won here last year. Your handicap should start with watching the timing and accuracy of golfers with their handlebars.
Ultimately, this is not an event where you want to bet on bad players. Bay Hill has some of the most complicated greens on the Tour, so don’t waste your money on someone struggling with their flat club.
5 key stats for the Arnold Palmer Invitational
Rory McIlroy +1200 (1 Unit)
I can’t give up betting on Rory McIlroy this week. He was the 2018 winner of the event, and Bay Hill has historically been one of the best courses for him in his career. That’s why, when you consider this track is designed to give good golfers a big boost. McIlroy leads all golfers on the course in strokes per round at Bay Hill, averaging +2.69.
He’s also been quietly in great form, despite not playing much in 2022. Since winning the CJ Cup in October, he’s gone T6, 18, T12, 3, and then T10 at Genesis Opened two weeks ago.
Matt Fitzpatrick +2800 (1 Unit)
I think Matt Fitzpatrick is by far the best value across the board. He’s a lad who’s been playing well lately, has had success in the past at Bay Hill, and has a style of play that suits this field to perfection.
He is second on the Tour this season in total strokes, including 12th in stroke, second in approach and 35th in tee shots. More importantly, he’s 5th in approach shooting from over 200 yards, which is a big advantage at Bay Hill.
He’s also placed 12th or better in four consecutive starts, and he’s finished in the top 10 at the event for the past three seasons, including second in 2019. With a +2800 ( bet $100 for a $2,800 profit), Fitzpatrick is definitely worth a bet.
Chris Kirk +8000 (0.5 Units)
If I asked you who has averaged the most birds at Bay Hill over the past 5 years, there’s a 0% chance you’ll guess Chris Kirk, but surprisingly it’s the correct answer.
Not only that, but he’s played some solid golf in recent weeks, including a T7 finish at the Honda Classic last week and a T14 finish at the WM Phoenix Open last week. He’s 41st in strokes taken: off-the-tee, 18th in both hits: greenfield tees and strokes: totals, and 25th with over 200-yard par performance. 3. In the end, he finished 15th or higher at the event in three consecutive starts.
Find me a better bet at 80/1 this week. You won’t be able to.
Check out Iain’s details Betting record in 2022 is here.
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