ANY / Stats Week 10: Using historical data to predict who is most likely to win the Super Bowl
Week 10 of the NFL season is in the books, and I wanted to provide some data for knockout and success prediction. With that in mind, here’s a visualization of the ANY/A data point to be used for fouls (OANY/A) and defense (DANY/A) from Pro Football Reference:
- Number of nets adjusted for each pass execution (ANY/A): Number of passes – Number of passes + (20 * TD passes) – (45 * Number of interceptions)) / (Number of passes + Number of hits)
The teams at the top right are the current leading teams that won the Super Bowl, and we can see from the chart where the other teams are currently sitting. I also find it interesting to compare the results with eighth week article to see how the group’s trend is moving. As mentioned earlier, no team has won a Super Bowl since 2000 with a negative ANY/A spread and a DANY/A number higher than 6.1, and I’ll keep an eye on it and provide data as the section progresses. the rest of the season takes place.
Here are two team breakdowns: first, the teams that meet the above criteria are shown in green, and the second is a summary of these teams only.
The first table is an interesting scene, the teams marked entirely in green are the current teams that meet the Super Bowl criteria as we sit here today with historical data to back it up. The teams that met the criteria in both the eighth and tenth weeks were the Bills, Rams, Cardinals, Bucs, Packers, Patriots, Bengals and Broncos. The teams entering this week’s list are the Cowboys and Vikings, and falling off this week’s list are the Raiders, Saints and Chargers. The 49ers are also important to note as they only missed DANY/A 0.2, and the Giants and Panthers meet DANY/A, in the eighth weekend. This highlights which teams have a solid Super Bowl chance and which teams are in line as of today.
Steelers currently have -0.8 and 6.6 DANY/A spreads, a small improvement over -0.9 and 6.9 DANY/A spreads from week eight. Here’s to hoping Pittsburgh’s defense can strengthen and improve their numbers for the rest of the season, as that seems to be their only hope of making the roster in the future.
Here’s the view with teams that currently meet the criteria:
It will be interesting to continue to monitor this process going forward and see the data consolidate as we continue throughout the season and shed light on who is likely to make it into this year’s playoffs and Super Bowl.
Thanks for reading and let me know what you think in the comments!
https://steelersdepot.com/2021/11/any-a-stats-week-10-using-historical-data-to-predict-most-likely-super-bowl-winners/ ANY / Stats Week 10: Using historical data to predict who is most likely to win the Super Bowl