2023 Valero Texas Open odds, tips, field: Surprising PGA predictions from a model that hit 8 majors

The 2023 Valero Texas Open is taking place this week at TPC San Antonio, and with Augusta approaching, any player who hasn’t yet qualified for the first major championship of the season will be in winner-takes-all mode starting Thursday. Rickie Fowler doesn’t meet any of Augusta National Golf Club’s current qualifying criteria, so he needs a win in San Antonio to avoid missing the Masters for a third straight season. The No. 59 player in the official world golf rankings already has three top-10 finishes in the 2022-23 PGA Tour season, including a second-place finish in last fall’s ZOZO Championship.

Fowler hasn’t won on the PGA Tour since the 2019 World Championship Phoenix Open, but he’s listed 20-1 on Caesars Sportsbook’s 2023 Valero Texas Open odds to end his four-year drought. Tyrrell Hatton is the 13-1 favorite in this week’s PGA Tour odds while other notable players include Corey Conners (17-1), Hideki Matsuyama (24-1) and Matt Kuchar (28-1). Before you decide to play the 2023 Valero Texas Open, be sure to check out the golf predictions and predicted rankings from SportsLine’s trusted computer model.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red hot since the PGA Tour resumed in June 2020. In fact, the model has gained over $8,100 on its best bets since the reboot, nailing tournament after tournament.

McClure’s model predicted that Jon Rahm would finish at the top of the leaderboard at the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions, the American Express and the Genesis Invitational. The model also included JT Poston in his best bets to win the 2022 John Deere Classic. That bet reached +5500, and for the entire tournament, McClure’s best bets brought in nearly $1,100. At the 2022 Masters, McClure’s model was centered around Scottie Scheffler’s first major championship win of his career heading into the weekend.

Additionally, among McClure’s best bets was Collin Morikawa’s overall win at the 2021 Open Championship, despite being listed as a massive 40-1 long shot. The model was also featured throughout Rahm’s (10-1) career first major championship win at the 2021 US Open. Rahm was two strokes away from the lead going into the weekend, but the model still predicted him as the winner.

The same model also nailed a whopping eight majors over the weekend. Everyone who has followed it has seen massive returns.

Now that the 2023 Valero Texas Open field is closed, SportsLine has simulated the tournament 10,000 times and the results were surprising. Now go to SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard.

The best predictions for the Valero Texas Open 2023

A big surprise awaiting the model at the 2023 Valero Texas Open: Conners, the 2019 champion and one of the top favorites, stumbles this week and doesn’t even crack the top-5. Conners secured his first win at the event in 2019, but it remains his only win on the PGA Tour.

Additionally, Conners has been struggling a lot in recent weeks, finishing three of his last five starts at T-50 or worse, including a missed cut at the Players Championship earlier this month. Conners’ recent struggles can be directly attributed to his inconsistent putting. The 31-year-old enters this week’s event ranked 151st in strokes won: putting (-0.270), 181st in one-putt percentage (36.81%) and 189th in putts per round (29.63 ). It also ranks 100th in driving accuracy percentage (59.15%). He’s not a strong pick to win everything and there are far better stats in the 2023 Valero Texas Open field.

Another surprise: Thomas Detry, a 44-1 longshot, makes a strong run to the title. Detry has a much better chance of winning it all than his odds suggest, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a big payday. The world ranked 80th player missed the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play so he decided to play at the 2023 Corales Puntacana Championship and scored a T-8 finish that placed him 29th in the FedEx Cup league score brought.

Detry hasn’t received an invite to the 2023 Masters just yet, so he’ll be one of the many players who need a win this week in San Antonio to secure a spot. He has a well-rounded game, ranks in the top 100 on the PGA Tour in all four major strokes won categories, and ranks 47th in total strokes won (.623). And with a second-place finish at the Bermuda Championship earlier this season, he seems poised for a big break this week. See who else you can pick here.

How to Make 2023 Valero Texas Open Picks

The model also targets four other golfers at odds of 25-1 or greater who will make surprise runs. Anyone betting on these longshots could make it big. You can only see the model’s PGA picks here.

So who will win the 2023 Valero Texas Open? And which long shots inspire the golf world? Check out the 2023 Valero Texas Open odds below, then visit SportsLine to see the 2023 Valero Texas Open predicted rankings, all from the model that has nailed eight golf majors, including last year’s Masters.

2023 Valero Texas Open Odds, Field

Check out full Valero Texas Open 2023 tips, best bets and predictions here.

Tyrell Hatton +1300
Corey Conner’s +1700
Rickie Fowler +2000
Si Woo Kim +2100
Hideki Matsuyama +2400
Taylor Montgomery +2800
Matt Kuchar +2800
Chris Kirk +3100
Davis Riley +3400
JJ Spaun +3400
Matt Wallace +3700
Ben Griffin +4100
Thomas Detry +4400
Cameron Davis +4400
Adam Schenk +4800
Taylor Pendrith +4800
Brendon Todd +4800
Alex Noren +4800
Aaron Rai +5000
Nick Taylor +5000
Davis Thompson +5000
Andrew Putnam +5000
Ryan Fox +5000
Christiaan Bezuidenhout +5500
Nicolai Hojgaard +5500
Sam Ryder +5500
Alex Smalley +6500
Francesco Molinari +7000
Brandon Wu +7500
Will Gordon +8500
Tyler Duncan +8500
Ryan Palmer +8500
Luke list +8500
Emiliano Grillo +9000
Pierceson Coody +9000
Eric van Rooyen +9000
Beau Hossler +9000
Sepp Straka +9000
Austin Eckroat +10000
Ben Martin +10000
Patton Kizzire +10000
SH Kim +10000
Byeong Hun An +10000
Robby Shelton +10000
Akshay Bhatia +10000
Trey Mullinax +10000
Eric Cole +10000
Hayden Buckley +10000
Harry Hall +10000
Nate Lashley +11000
Padraig Harrington +11000
Sam Stevens +11000
Garrick Higgo +11000
David Lingmerth +11000
Kevin Streelman +12000
Patrick Rodgers +12000
Mark Hubbard +13000
Lanto Griffin +13000
Kramer Hickok +13000
Nick Hardy +13000
Lee Hodges +13000
Charley Hoffman +13000
Matthew NeSmith +13000
Dylan Frittelli +14000
Troy Merritt +14000
Joseph Bramlett +14000
Russell Knox +15000
Kevin Chappell +15000
Kazuki Higa +15000
Lucas Glover +15000
Scott Piercy +16000
Mathias Schwab +16000
Cameron Champ +16000
Henrik Norlander +16000
Ben Taylor +16000
Callum Tarren +16000
Chad Ramey +16000
Adam Long +16000
Greyson Sigg +16000
Matthew Schmid +16000
Michael Kim +18000
Martin Laird +18000
MJ Daffue +18000
Michael Thompson +19000