2023 Oscars Best International Feature Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

LAST UPDATED: Nov. 10, 2022

2023 Oscars Predictions: Best International Feature

HOLY SPIDER, Zar Amir-Ebrahimi, 2022. © Wild Bunch /Courtesy Everett Collection
Courtesy Everett Collection

CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Could this be the most competitive year for the international feature category? Looks like it is based on the field that will only yield 15 films on the shortlist when the Academy names them in late December.

Are there any international features that can break outside of this category this year? “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Close” are somewhat in the best picture discussion while “Decision to Leave” feels like a lone director nom waiting to happen.

There are also acting possibilities such as Vicky Krieps (“Corsage”) and Zar Amir Ebrahimi (“Holy Spider”), who are factors as well.

See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.

To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.

See the Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories.

See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.


And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank Name Director(s) Country
1 “Close” Lukas Dhont Belgium (OFFICIAL)
The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi’s mother. “Close” is a film about friendship and responsibility.
2 “All Quiet on the Western Front” Edward Berger Germany (OFFICIAL)
A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
3 “Saint Omer” Alice Diop France (OFFICIAL)
Follows Rama, a novelist who attends the trial of Laurence Coly at the Saint-Omer Criminal Court to use her story to write a modern-day adaptation of the ancient myth of Medea, but things don’t go as expected.
4 “Decision to Leave” Park Chan-wook South Korea
A detective investigating a man’s death in the mountains meets the dead man’s mysterious wife in the course of his dogged sleuthing.
5 “Holy Spider” Ali Abbasi Denmark (OFFICIAL)
A journalist descends into the dark underbelly of the Iranian holy city of Mashhad as she investigates the serial killings of sex workers by the so called “Spider Killer”, who believes he is cleansing the streets of sinners.
Next in Line
6 “Argentina, 1985” Santiago Mitre Argentina (OFFICIAL)
A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina’s bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time.
7 “EO” Jerzy Skolimowski Poland (OFFICIAL)
Follows a donkey who encounters on his journeys good and bad people, experiences joy and pain, exploring a vision of modern Europe through his eyes.
8 “Klondike” Maryna Er Gorbach Ukraine (OFFICIAL)
The story of a Ukrainian family living on the border of Russia and Ukraine during the start of the war. Irka refuses to leave her house even as the village gets captured by armed forces. Shortly after they find themselves at the center of an international air crash catastrophe on July 17, 2014.
9 “Corsage” Marie Kreutzer Austria (OFFICIAL)
A fictional account of the later years of Empress Elisabeth of Austria. On Christmas Eve 1877, Elisabeth turns 40 and is officially deemed an old woman and starts trying to maintain her public image, once idolized for her beauty.
10 “Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” Alejandro G. Iñárritu Mexico (OFFICIAL)
A renowned Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker living in Los Angeles, who, after being named the recipient of a prestigious international award, is compelled to return to his native country.
Other Top-Tier Contenders (Short List Cut Off)
11 “Return to Seoul” Davy Chou Cambodia (OFFICIAL)
12 “Joyland” Saim Sadiq Pakistan (OFFICIAL)
13 “Alcarràs” Carla Simón Spain (OFFICIAL)
14 “The Quiet Girl” Colm Bairéad Ireland
15 “A Piece of Sky” Michael Koch Switzerland
Also In Contention
21 Utama Alejandro Loayza Grisi Bolivia (OFFICIAL)
22 “Boy from Heaven” Tarik Saleh Sweden (OFFICIAL)
23 “Girl Picture” Alli Haapasalo Finland (OFFICIAL)
24 “Beautiful Beings” Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson Iceland (OFFICIAL)
25 “Eternal Spring” Jason Loftus Canada (OFFICIAL)
26 “Last Film Show” Pan Nalin India (OFFICIAL)
27 “Goddamned Asura” Lou Yi-an Taiwan
28 “Nostalgia” Mario Martone Italy (OFFICIAL)
29 “Where the Wind Blows” Philip Yung Hong Kong (OFFICIAL)
30 “Mars One” Gabriel Martins Brazil (OFFICIAL)
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
“A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On” Gentian Koçi Albania (OFFICIAL)
“Our Brothers” Rachid Bouchareb Algeria (OFFICIAL)
“Argentina, 1985” Santiago Mitre Argentina (OFFICIAL)
“Aurora’s Sunrise” Inna Sahakyan Armenia (OFFICIAL)
“You Won’t Be Alone” Goran Stolevski Australia (OFFICIAL)
“Corsage” Marie Kreutzer Austria (OFFICIAL)
“Creators” Shamil Aliyev Azerbaijan (OFFICIAL)
“Hawa” Mejbaur Rahman Sumon Bangladesh (OFFICIAL)
“Close” Lukas Dhont Belgium (OFFICIAL)
“Utama” Alejandro Loayza Grisi Bolivia (OFFICIAL)
“A Ballad” Aida Begić Bosnia and Herzegovina (OFFICIAL)
“Mars One” Gabriel Martins Brazil (OFFICIAL)
“In the Heart of the Machine” Martin Makariev Bulgaria (OFFICIAL)
“Return to Seoul” Davy Chou Cambodia (OFFICIAL)
“The Pianter’s Plantation” Dingha Young Eystein Cameroon (OFFICIAL)
“Eternal Spring” Jason Loftus Canada (OFFICIAL)
“Blanquita” Fernando Guzzoni Chile (OFFICIAL)
“Nice View” Wen Muye China (OFFICIAL)
“The Kings of the World” Laura Mora Ortega Colombia (OFFICIAL)
“Domingo and the Mist” Ariel Escalante Costa Rica (OFFICIAL)
“Safe Place” Juraj Lerotić Croatia (OFFICIAL)
“Il Boemo” Petr Václav Czech Republic (OFFICIAL)
“Holy Spider” Ali Abbasi Denmark (OFFICIAL)
“Bantú Mama” Ivan Herrera Dominican Republic (OFFICIAL)
“Lo Invisible” Javier Andrade Ecuador (OFFICIAL)
“Kalev” Ove Musting Estonia (OFFICIAL)
“Girl Picture” Alli Haapasalo Finland (OFFICIAL)
“Saint Omer” Alice Diop France (OFFICIAL)
“A Long Break” Davit Pirtskhalava Georgia (OFFICIAL)
“All Quiet on the Western Front” Edward Berger Germany (OFFICIAL)
“Magnetic Fields” Yorgos Goussis Greece (OFFICIAL)
“The Silence of the Mole” Anäis Taracena Guatemala (OFFICIAL)
“Where the Wind Blows” Philip Yung Hong Kong (OFFICIAL)
“Blockade” Ádám Tõsér Hungary (OFFICIAL)
“Beautiful Beings” Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson Iceland (OFFICIAL)
“Last Film Show” Pan Nalin India (OFFICIAL)
“Ngeri-Ngeri Sedap” Bene Dion Rajagukguk Indonesia (OFFICIAL)
“World War III” Houman Seyyedi Iran (OFFICIAL)
“The Exam” Shawkat Amin Korki Iraq (OFFICIAL)
“The Quiet Girl” Colm Bairéad Ireland (OFFICIAL)
“Cinema Sabaya” Orit Fouks Rotem Israel (OFFICIAL)
“Nostalgia” Mario Martone Italy (OFFICIAL)
“Plan 75” Chie Hayakawa Japan (OFFICIAL)
“Farha” Darin J. Sallam Jordan (OFFICIAL)
“Life” Emir Baigazin Kazakhstan (OFFICIAL)
“TeraStorm” Andrew Kaggia Kenya (OFFICIAL)
“Looking for Venera” Norika Sefa Kosovo (OFFICIAL)
“Home for Sale” Taalaibek Kulmendeev Krygyzstan (OFFICIAL)
“January” Viestur Kairish Latvia (OFFICIAL)
“Memory Box” Joana Hadjithomas, Khalil Joreige Lebanon (OFFICIAL)
“Pilgrims” Laurynas Bareiša Lithuania (OFFICIAL)
“Icarus” Carlo Vogele Luxembourg (OFFICIAL)
“Carmen” Valerie Buhagiar Malta (OFFICIAL)
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths” Alejandro G. Iñárritu Mexico (OFFICIAL)
“Carbon” Ion Borș Moldova (OFFICIAL)
“Harvest Moon” Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam Mongolia (OFFICIAL)
“The Elegy of Laurei” Dušan Kasalica Montenegro (OFFICIAL)
“The Blue Caftan” Maryam Touzani Morocco (OFFICIAL)
“Butterfly on the Windowpane” Sujit Bidari Nepal (OFFICIAL)
“Narcosis” Martijn de Jong Netherlands (OFFICIAL)
“Muru” Tearepa Kahi New Zealand (OFFICIAL)
“The Happiest Man in the World” Teona Strugar Mitevska North Macedonia (OFFICIAL)
“War Sailor” Gunnar Vikene Norway (OFFICIAL)
“Joyland” Saim Sadiq Pakistan (OFFICIAL)
“Mediterranean Fever” Maha Haj Palestine (OFFICIAL)
“Birthday Boy” Arturo Montenegro Panama (OFFICIAL)
“Eami” Paz Encina Paraguay (OFFICIAL)
“Moon Heart” Aldo Salvini Peru (OFFICIAL)
“On the Job: The Missing 8” Erik Matti Philippines (OFFICIAL)
“EO” Jerzy Skolimowski Poland (OFFICIAL)
“Alma Vivia” Cristèle Alves Meira Portugal (OFFICIAL)
“Immaculate” Monica Stan, George Chiper Romania (OFFICIAL)
“Raven Song” Mohamed Al-Salman Saudi Arabia (OFFICIAL)
“Xalé” Moussa Sene Absa Senegal (OFFICIAL)
“Darkling” Dušan Milić Serbia (OFFICIAL)
“Ajoomma” He Shuming Singapore (OFFICIAL)
“Victim” Michal Blaško Slovakia (OFFICIAL)
“Orchestra” Matevž Luzar Slovenia (OFFICIAL)
“Decision to Leave” Park Chan-wook South Korea (OFFICIAL)
“Alcarràs” Carla Simón Spain (OFFICIAL)
“Boy from Heaven” Tarik Saleh Sweden (OFFICIAL)
“A Piece of Sky” Michael Koch Switzerland (OFFICIAL)
“Goddamned Asura” Lou Yi-an Taiwan (OFFICIAL)
“Tug of War” Amil Shivji Tanzania (OFFICIAL)
“One for the Road” Nattawut Poonpiriya Thailand (OFFICIAL)
“Under the Fig Trees” Erige Sehiri Tunisia (OFFICIAL)
“Kerr” Tayfun Pirselimoğlu Turkey (OFFICIAL)
“Tembele” Morris Mugisha Uganda (OFFICIAL)
“Klondike” Maryna Er Gorbach Ukraine (OFFICIAL)
“Winners” Hassan Nazer United Kingdom (OFFICIAL)
“The Employer and the Employee” Manolo Nieto Uruguay (OFFICIAL)
“The Box” Lorenzo Vigas Venezuela (OFFICIAL)
“578 Magnum” Lương Đình Dũng Vietnam (OFFICIAL)

2023 Academy Awards Predictions


The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.

2022 category winner: “Drive My Car” (Japan) – dir. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi

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https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-international-feature-predictions-1235378161/ 2023 Oscars Best International Feature Predictions

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