Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Nov. 10, 2022
2023 Oscars Predictions: Best International Feature
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: Could this be the most competitive year for the international feature category? Looks like it is based on the field that will only yield 15 films on the shortlist when the Academy names them in late December.
Are there any international features that can break outside of this category this year? “All Quiet on the Western Front” and “Close” are somewhat in the best picture discussion while “Decision to Leave” feels like a lone director nom waiting to happen.
There are also acting possibilities such as Vicky Krieps (“Corsage”) and Zar Amir Ebrahimi (“Holy Spider”), who are factors as well.
See the latest film predictions, in all 23 categories, in one place on Variety’s Oscars Collective.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
See the Golden Globe predictions in all of the film categories.
See the 2022-2023 Awards Season calendar for all key dates and timelines.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
And The Predicted Nominees Are:
Rank
Name
Director(s)
Country
1
“Close”
Lukas Dhont
Belgium (OFFICIAL)
The intense friendship between two thirteen-year old boys Leo and Remi suddenly gets disrupted. Struggling to understand what has happened, Léo approaches Sophie, Rémi’s mother. “Close” is a film about friendship and responsibility.
2
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Edward Berger
Germany (OFFICIAL)
A young German soldier’s terrifying experiences and distress on the western front during World War I.
3
“Saint Omer”
Alice Diop
France (OFFICIAL)
Follows Rama, a novelist who attends the trial of Laurence Coly at the Saint-Omer Criminal Court to use her story to write a modern-day adaptation of the ancient myth of Medea, but things don’t go as expected.
4
“Decision to Leave”
Park Chan-wook
South Korea (OFFICIAL)
A detective investigating a man’s death in the mountains meets the dead man’s mysterious wife in the course of his dogged sleuthing.
5
“Holy Spider”
Ali Abbasi
Denmark (OFFICIAL)
A journalist descends into the dark underbelly of the Iranian holy city of Mashhad as she investigates the serial killings of sex workers by the so called “Spider Killer”, who believes he is cleansing the streets of sinners.
Next in Line
6
“Argentina, 1985”
Santiago Mitre
Argentina (OFFICIAL)
A team of lawyers take on the heads of Argentina’s bloody military dictatorship during the 1980s in a battle against odds and a race against time.
7
“EO”
Jerzy Skolimowski
Poland (OFFICIAL)
Follows a donkey who encounters on his journeys good and bad people, experiences joy and pain, exploring a vision of modern Europe through his eyes.
8
“Klondike”
Maryna Er Gorbach
Ukraine (OFFICIAL)
The story of a Ukrainian family living on the border of Russia and Ukraine during the start of the war. Irka refuses to leave her house even as the village gets captured by armed forces. Shortly after they find themselves at the center of an international air crash catastrophe on July 17, 2014.
9
“Corsage”
Marie Kreutzer
Austria (OFFICIAL)
A fictional account of the later years of Empress Elisabeth of Austria. On Christmas Eve 1877, Elisabeth turns 40 and is officially deemed an old woman and starts trying to maintain her public image, once idolized for her beauty.
10
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Mexico (OFFICIAL)
A renowned Mexican journalist and documentary filmmaker living in Los Angeles, who, after being named the recipient of a prestigious international award, is compelled to return to his native country.
Other Top-Tier Contenders (Short List Cut Off)
11
“Return to Seoul”
Davy Chou
Cambodia (OFFICIAL)
12
“Joyland”
Saim Sadiq
Pakistan (OFFICIAL)
13
“Alcarràs”
Carla Simón
Spain (OFFICIAL)
14
“The Quiet Girl”
Colm Bairéad
Ireland (OFFICIAL)
15
“A Piece of Sky”
Michael Koch
Switzerland (OFFICIAL)
Also In Contention
21
Utama
Alejandro Loayza Grisi
Bolivia (OFFICIAL)
22
“Boy from Heaven”
Tarik Saleh
Sweden (OFFICIAL)
23
“Girl Picture”
Alli Haapasalo
Finland (OFFICIAL)
24
“Beautiful Beings”
Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson
Iceland (OFFICIAL)
25
“Eternal Spring”
Jason Loftus
Canada (OFFICIAL)
26
“Last Film Show”
Pan Nalin
India (OFFICIAL)
27
“Goddamned Asura”
Lou Yi-an
Taiwan (OFFICIAL)
28
“Nostalgia”
Mario Martone
Italy (OFFICIAL)
29
“Where the Wind Blows”
Philip Yung
Hong Kong (OFFICIAL)
30
“Mars One”
Gabriel Martins
Brazil (OFFICIAL)
All Contenders Listed (Unranked-Alphabetical)
—
“A Cup of Coffee and New Shoes On”
Gentian Koçi
Albania (OFFICIAL)
—
“Our Brothers”
Rachid Bouchareb
Algeria (OFFICIAL)
—
“Argentina, 1985”
Santiago Mitre
Argentina (OFFICIAL)
—
“Aurora’s Sunrise”
Inna Sahakyan
Armenia (OFFICIAL)
—
“You Won’t Be Alone”
Goran Stolevski
Australia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Corsage”
Marie Kreutzer
Austria (OFFICIAL)
—
“Creators”
Shamil Aliyev
Azerbaijan (OFFICIAL)
—
“Hawa”
Mejbaur Rahman Sumon
Bangladesh (OFFICIAL)
—
“Close”
Lukas Dhont
Belgium (OFFICIAL)
—
“Utama”
Alejandro Loayza Grisi
Bolivia (OFFICIAL)
—
“A Ballad”
Aida Begić
Bosnia and Herzegovina (OFFICIAL)
—
“Mars One”
Gabriel Martins
Brazil (OFFICIAL)
—
“In the Heart of the Machine”
Martin Makariev
Bulgaria (OFFICIAL)
—
“Return to Seoul”
Davy Chou
Cambodia (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Pianter’s Plantation”
Dingha Young Eystein
Cameroon (OFFICIAL)
—
“Eternal Spring”
Jason Loftus
Canada (OFFICIAL)
—
“Blanquita”
Fernando Guzzoni
Chile (OFFICIAL)
—
“Nice View”
Wen Muye
China (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Kings of the World”
Laura Mora Ortega
Colombia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Domingo and the Mist”
Ariel Escalante
Costa Rica (OFFICIAL)
—
“Safe Place”
Juraj Lerotić
Croatia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Il Boemo”
Petr Václav
Czech Republic (OFFICIAL)
—
“Holy Spider”
Ali Abbasi
Denmark (OFFICIAL)
—
“Bantú Mama”
Ivan Herrera
Dominican Republic (OFFICIAL)
—
“Lo Invisible”
Javier Andrade
Ecuador (OFFICIAL)
—
“Kalev”
Ove Musting
Estonia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Girl Picture”
Alli Haapasalo
Finland (OFFICIAL)
—
“Saint Omer”
Alice Diop
France (OFFICIAL)
—
“A Long Break”
Davit Pirtskhalava
Georgia (OFFICIAL)
—
“All Quiet on the Western Front”
Edward Berger
Germany (OFFICIAL)
—
“Magnetic Fields”
Yorgos Goussis
Greece (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Silence of the Mole”
Anäis Taracena
Guatemala (OFFICIAL)
—
“Where the Wind Blows”
Philip Yung
Hong Kong (OFFICIAL)
—
“Blockade”
Ádám Tõsér
Hungary (OFFICIAL)
—
“Beautiful Beings”
Guðmundur Arnar Guðmundsson
Iceland (OFFICIAL)
—
“Last Film Show”
Pan Nalin
India (OFFICIAL)
—
“Ngeri-Ngeri Sedap”
Bene Dion Rajagukguk
Indonesia (OFFICIAL)
—
“World War III”
Houman Seyyedi
Iran (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Exam”
Shawkat Amin Korki
Iraq (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Quiet Girl”
Colm Bairéad
Ireland (OFFICIAL)
—
“Cinema Sabaya”
Orit Fouks Rotem
Israel (OFFICIAL)
—
“Nostalgia”
Mario Martone
Italy (OFFICIAL)
—
“Plan 75”
Chie Hayakawa
Japan (OFFICIAL)
—
“Farha”
Darin J. Sallam
Jordan (OFFICIAL)
—
“Life”
Emir Baigazin
Kazakhstan (OFFICIAL)
—
“TeraStorm”
Andrew Kaggia
Kenya (OFFICIAL)
—
“Looking for Venera”
Norika Sefa
Kosovo (OFFICIAL)
—
“Home for Sale”
Taalaibek Kulmendeev
Krygyzstan (OFFICIAL)
—
“January”
Viestur Kairish
Latvia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Memory Box”
Joana Hadjithomas, Khalil Joreige
Lebanon (OFFICIAL)
—
“Pilgrims”
Laurynas Bareiša
Lithuania (OFFICIAL)
—
“Icarus”
Carlo Vogele
Luxembourg (OFFICIAL)
—
“Carmen”
Valerie Buhagiar
Malta (OFFICIAL)
—
“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Mexico (OFFICIAL)
—
“Carbon”
Ion Borș
Moldova (OFFICIAL)
—
“Harvest Moon”
Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam
Mongolia (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Elegy of Laurei”
Dušan Kasalica
Montenegro (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Blue Caftan”
Maryam Touzani
Morocco (OFFICIAL)
—
“Butterfly on the Windowpane”
Sujit Bidari
Nepal (OFFICIAL)
—
“Narcosis”
Martijn de Jong
Netherlands (OFFICIAL)
—
“Muru”
Tearepa Kahi
New Zealand (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Happiest Man in the World”
Teona Strugar Mitevska
North Macedonia (OFFICIAL)
—
“War Sailor”
Gunnar Vikene
Norway (OFFICIAL)
—
“Joyland”
Saim Sadiq
Pakistan (OFFICIAL)
—
“Mediterranean Fever”
Maha Haj
Palestine (OFFICIAL)
—
“Birthday Boy”
Arturo Montenegro
Panama (OFFICIAL)
—
“Eami”
Paz Encina
Paraguay (OFFICIAL)
—
“Moon Heart”
Aldo Salvini
Peru (OFFICIAL)
—
“On the Job: The Missing 8”
Erik Matti
Philippines (OFFICIAL)
—
“EO”
Jerzy Skolimowski
Poland (OFFICIAL)
—
“Alma Vivia”
Cristèle Alves Meira
Portugal (OFFICIAL)
—
“Immaculate”
Monica Stan, George Chiper
Romania (OFFICIAL)
—
“Raven Song”
Mohamed Al-Salman
Saudi Arabia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Xalé”
Moussa Sene Absa
Senegal (OFFICIAL)
—
“Darkling”
Dušan Milić
Serbia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Ajoomma”
He Shuming
Singapore (OFFICIAL)
—
“Victim”
Michal Blaško
Slovakia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Orchestra”
Matevž Luzar
Slovenia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Decision to Leave”
Park Chan-wook
South Korea (OFFICIAL)
—
“Alcarràs”
Carla Simón
Spain (OFFICIAL)
—
“Boy from Heaven”
Tarik Saleh
Sweden (OFFICIAL)
—
“A Piece of Sky”
Michael Koch
Switzerland (OFFICIAL)
—
“Goddamned Asura”
Lou Yi-an
Taiwan (OFFICIAL)
—
“Tug of War”
Amil Shivji
Tanzania (OFFICIAL)
—
“One for the Road”
Nattawut Poonpiriya
Thailand (OFFICIAL)
—
“Under the Fig Trees”
Erige Sehiri
Tunisia (OFFICIAL)
—
“Kerr”
Tayfun Pirselimoğlu
Turkey (OFFICIAL)
—
“Tembele”
Morris Mugisha
Uganda (OFFICIAL)
—
“Klondike”
Maryna Er Gorbach
Ukraine (OFFICIAL)
—
“Winners”
Hassan Nazer
United Kingdom (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Employer and the Employee”
Manolo Nieto
Uruguay (OFFICIAL)
—
“The Box”
Lorenzo Vigas
Venezuela (OFFICIAL)
—
“578 Magnum”
Lương Đình Dũng
Vietnam (OFFICIAL)
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: “Drive My Car” (Japan) – dir. Ryûsuke Hamaguchi
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
https://variety.com/feature/2023-oscars-best-international-feature-predictions-1235378161/ 2023 Oscars Best International Feature Predictions
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