2023 NFL Draft: 4 most intriguing prop bets what odds could mean for Bijan Robinson, Quentin Johnston, more

The 2023 NFL draft, or at least the rumors surrounding it, is different than the past few years. Texas running back Bijan Robinson is considered one of the best players in the draft despite playing one of the most depreciated positions in the NFL. teams don’t seem to be too high on wide receivers of the first round: TCU wide receiver Quentin Johnston is 6-foot-3, weighs about 210 pounds, runs about a 4.5-40 yard dash and was one of the top reasons the Horned Frogs made it to the national championship game. However, he wasn’t invited to attend the draft in Kansas City.

No one seems to know exactly what the Houston Texans will do with the No. 2 overall pick, although a quarterback and two-time Heisman Trophy finalist and Ohio State quarterback CJ Stroud seem like the obvious choices. Alabama pass rusher Will Anderson Jr. is one of the best prospects overall for a premium position, edge rusher, and he could drop out of the top three.

These form four of the most interesting proposals. Here’s a closer look at those odds, courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, and what they could mean for the draft, which begins Thursday night.

Bijan Robinson will become the first RB to be ranked in the top 20 since 2018

Robinson position draft O/U: 15.5
Above: +220 Under: -275

Since 2010, only nine running backs have been selected for the first 20 picks in an NFL draft. There haven’t been running backs like this since the 2018 NFL draft, when the Giants picked Saquon Barkley for second overall. Bijan Robinson is special enough to justify such a pick, and he can even sneak into the back end of the top 10: I’m looking at you, Falcons (8th overall pick holder) and Eagles (10th overall pick holder).

Robinson led the NCAA with 113 tackle avoidances in 2022, the most by an FBS player in the past five seasons. He’s an all-down defender who can be a weapon both as a runner and as a receiver from the backfield. He’s one of the top picks in this draft regardless of position, which is why people can’t currently get plus-money odds on him making the top 15. The really special running backs can be valuable to their teams with the right offensive game plan. Robinson is special, and his draft position in a league geared towards passing will reflect that.

Teams aren’t high in the WR league, which could lead to late first-round steals like Quentin Johnston

Johnston draft position O/U: 26.5
Above: -160 Under: +130

Six wide receivers were selected in the opening round of the 2022 NFL Draft: Drake London (eighth overall from the Falcons), Garrett Wilson (10th overall from the Jets), Chris Olave (11th overall from the Saints), Jameson Williams (12th overall from overall from the Lions), Jahan Dotson (16th overall from the Commanders) and Treylon Burks (18th overall from the Titans).

This year, it looks like the first round will have a maximum of four contestants: Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-NjigbaBoston College Zay flowersUSC and TCU’s Jordan Addison Quentin Johnston. Johnston’s case is particularly intriguing considering he’s the sportiest pass catcher in the class. The plus-money bet, however, is on him going earlier than the back end of the first round, as Johnston’s camp said CBS sports He received feedback from the league that he will come off the board in the “20-28” pick area.

Johnston and Smith-Njigba coach David Robinson, who also coaches a number of top NFL wideouts like Tyreek Hill and Deebo Samuel, explained to CBS Sports why Johnston is worthy of being the first pick recipient.

“Jaxon’s [Smith-Njigba] from Texas [Rockwall specifically]so I’ve had the opportunity to work with him for quite a while,” said Robinson called. “I have also worked with him for the past year. So I’ve seen him in person about as many times as Q, but I definitely think with what Q has done so far he should be the first recipient to be taken. That’s up to you. Do you have guys who are six foot, 5-11 walking low 4.5 [40-yard dash times] and high 4.4, but Q does it at 212-215 pounds at 6-3. He moves in and out of his cuts just as well as some of these guys. He needs some tweaking, but his catching radius, how well he sinks his hips out of his breaks, makes him a harder tackle for defenders to bring down, unlike some of the other guys who are forecast to be up there to be with him. ”

“You get a guy [in Johnston] Who has elite feet against press [man] reporting,” continued Robinson (Johnston has said Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams is his inspiration for his footwork to get out of the line of scrimmage). “He [Johnston] has the elite ability to unravel at the top of his stopping routes and win against defenders at the top of contested catches. You get an elite runner after the catch. There are receivers that run and catch, and then there are receivers that can catch and run. He’s a guy who can catch and run. He’s a guy that’s going to be hard to bring down.”

Quentin Johnston and Jaxon Smith-Njigba readings*

* combine numbers; 40-yard dash times are from Pro days; ** Unofficial Pro Day time

While many NFL teams may not be as high on Johnston as his traits and skills suggest, there’s a good chance at least one team will see his potential and put him on the earlier side of that 20-28 range.

The Texans are the potential chaos team for the 2023 draft

The odds of what the Texans will do with their second overall victory reflect a lack of insight into what they will do after the Carolina Panthers likely select Alabama quarterback Bryce Young first overall. New Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans went out of his way to rave about it Young’s lead this offseason, indicating he’s the player Houston wishes it could take. Since he likely won’t be an option, it would make sense to go with Ohio State passer CJ Stroud, a two-time Heisman Trophy finalist who led the defense of the back-to-back national champion in the Buckeyes’ narrow 42-41 loss shredded in the semifinals of the college football playoffs: 348 passing yards, four passing touchdowns and no interceptions in 23 of 34 passing.

Despite Stroud’s extensive collegiate production — his 85 pass touchdowns are the most in a two-year span in Big Ten conference history — he has only the fourth-best chance of finishing second overall. He’s trailing behind Kentucky’s Will Levis, who may be the fourth-best quarterback in that class, and two defensive players: Texas Tech edge rusher Tyree Wilson and Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. It doesn’t make sense considering the Texans should have the chasing the best quarterback available after Davis Mills carried the NFL in interceptions in his second NFL season.

2023 NFL Draft odds for second overall pick

Though the Texans said they were”open to listening“Exchanging offers for election feels unrealistic given how many players are available on this draft slot and how badly they need more blue chip talent. Maybe this is all just a smokescreen to make their divisional rivals Colts think they’ll be able to get a QB they really like without trading. In the end, Stroud feels +450 odds second overall like a steal because if Houston ends up trading the pick, the new team picking at that point would probably take it. Also, Stroud makes the most sense for the Texans too.

Will Anderson Jr.’s fate as a top-three pick depends on the Cardinals’ new GM

Anderson Jr. Position Draft O/B: 3.5
Above: -200 Under: +160

During his three college football seasons from 2020-2022, Anderson averaged 207 quarterback pressures, 71 quarterback hits, 58.5 tackles for loss and 34.5 sacks. Do you know what all these stats have in common? They are all ranked among the best in the nation as of the 2020 season. Anderson Jr. is one of the best edge rushing contenders in the last five to 10 years so obviously he would be a ban to be in the top five right? Not necessarily. The Panthers go QB after trading from nine to one, the Texans should go QB at two, the Cardinals are rebuilt around quarterback Kyler Murray with new head coach Jonathan Gannon and general manager Monti Ossenfort, and the Colts go QB at four.

When the Cardinals aren’t trading with a quarterback-hungry franchise to hoard extra picks during the draft, Anderson Jr. likes to finish in the top three, putting the undershot on his draft position at plus-money. However, if the Cardinals trade, the quarterbacks will likely be selected with the first four picks. The under isn’t a terrible gamble if the Cardinals don’t end up enthusiastic about other teams’ trade-up proposals.