Last week at the Genesis Invitational, Joaquin Niemann became the first stringing winner since 1969, beating Collin Morikawa by two strokes at the Riviera.
Now, Niemann owns the third shortest odds at the 2022 Honda Classic as the PGA Tour heads east from California to Florida.
Check out the top 10 odds to win this week at the PGA National via WynnBET Sportsbook.
The Tom Fazio-designed Champion Course at the PGA National is 70, 7,125 yards across, and has a reputation for being one of the more difficult tests each year on tour.
According to PGATOUR.com, PGA National is rated as the third most difficult non-main course last season, with an average of 1 to 71 per half.
Hits: Approach is possibly the most important metric for this week. Via FantasyLabs, approach is a much larger indicator of success than Strokes Gained: Short Game at the Champion Course. Distance and driving accuracy will help, but even with smaller lanes, railways and trees in regulation (GIR) are more likely to make or break the competition this week than get over them.
Even if the golfer(s) you’re betting on are making it through the first round of 14, beware of the 15-17 “Bear Trap”. With plenty of water lying around three of the last four holes, players can dive off the leaderboard if their ball points into the water.
Key stats for Honda Classic
Billy Horschel (+2200)
I like Horschel’s odds this week at WynnBET, even though he’s the sixth-lowest pick across the board. There is still value for a golfer who is perfectly set up for this course at this point.
After skipping the Genesis Invitational last week, Billy returned to his home state of Florida with a T11 and T6 for his last two events on the west coast.
Horschel has achieved a total of just under 21 in his last two events and has made huge improvements from tee to green and to his iron. He has also been locked in with his swing and now moves to the local friendly Bermuda pitches, where he has been at the best of his career.
Keith Mitchell (+3300)
Mitchell came in with outstanding stats all around in his past 24 rounds, with a game well-suited to the challenges of the Champion course.
He was third in strokes achieved: green tee, fifth hit hit, and second in SG: tee off. His worst number is 36th in approach, which is important this week, but could certainly be a lot worse.
I envision Mitchell hovering over the leaderboard all weekend and feeling like a solid safe pick for this week’s 5,10 or 20 top picks.
Russell Knox (+5000)
Knox excelled off the tee, though not necessarily bombed it. He’s first in the field in Good Drives Gained, 1st in regulation greens and 10th in fairways achieved, so he’s set up very well for this type of event. He also has the best score of anyone on the Tour on the Bear Trap, ranking under 6 throughout his career.
Knox is also second in SG: shooting as well as close. Everything was well set up for him to contest except for one important issue: the shot.
Knox putting the ball was a problem, coming 137th on the field in his past 24 rounds. There was also concern about placing Bermuda greens this week in Florida, but bringing in Knox has already caused problems with Bentgrass, Bermuda and Poa, so it doesn’t make sense to let it worry if he can. hot for several days in a row.
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