In the coming weeks, we’ll begin to delve deeper when it comes to the specific circumstances for the 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. We’ve got our set. The most interesting storylines come with this ballot as the votes roll in before the class is announced on January 25th. Today we’ll be looking at qualifying players who are likely, at a minimum, to survive this vote. That is, who on the 30-player ballot will get at least five percent of the vote and stay on next year’s ballot?
From the outset, we knew at least four specific players would be out of the vote. Curt Schilling, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa are voting for the 10th and final time this year. It’s also clear that some returning players will continue to vote if they fall back into the 75% cutoff.
- Scott Rolen got more than half of the vote last year and the only way he’s out of the vote now is if he gets 75% and gets inducted.
- Billy Wagner, Todd Helton, Gary Sheffield, Andruw Jones, Jeff Kent and Manny Ramirez received between 25 and 50 percent of the vote last season, so they’re all good to go.
- I don’t know what will happen to Omar Vizquel, brought charges against him, but it looks like he’ll get five percent more.
- Andy Pettitte (13.7%) and Mark Buehrle (11.0) also look safe, as it would be shocking to see them lose more than 5% of the vote in a single cycle.
- Alex Rodriguez has inner stats, all-time great, but he’s also suspended due to ties to PED. Of course, so does Ramirez and A-Rod has a better on-field career than Manny, so the best bet is he has a 5% higher edge. Bonds and Clemens are probably the better comparison, and they were over 61% last year. I guess the A-Rod is about 55-60 percent.
- I can’t imagine a scenario where David Ortiz gets less than, say, 65% and he could get on the first ballot here.
That leaves us with 14 players vulnerable to receiving less than five percent of the vote and falling off the ballot before the 2023 vote.
Carl Crawford, Jake Peavy, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, AJ Pierzynski and Ryan Howard all have very respectable careers and deserve to be honored on this ballot, but it is difficult to see any of them receive more than just a few votes. They will all disappear before the next vote.
That leaves eight players left, who will be near the five percent mark.
- Torii Hunter: He received 9.5 percent of the vote last season and the hunch is that he will hover. Hunter was an exceptional defensive-centric player, who hit 0.277/.331/.461 (110 OPS+) with 2,452 hits, 1,296 runs, 1,391 RBIs, 498 doubles, 353 own and 195 goals. steal in his career.
- Bobby Abreu: Abreu barely survived the first vote with 5.5 percent and rose to 8.7 last year, so he’s likely safe. The base run machine ranks 49th all time, thanks to 2,470 hits and 1,476 walks (20th all time). He hit 0.291 with a base percentage of 395 in his 18 years. He won 1,453 runs and 1,363 RBIs with 574 doubles and 400 steals. He’s 20th all-time in JAWS among correct players, sandwiched between Dave Winfield and Vladimir Guerrero.
- Tim Hudson: Buddy barely made it last year, receiving 5.2% of the vote. He’s 222-133 in his career with 3.49 ERA (120 ERA+) and over 2,000 strikes in 3,126 2/3 innings. Four-time All-Star Champion is 2014 World Series Champion Giant‘ Rotation. The vote this time around was a lot more crowded with no one introduced last year and a bunch of worthy newcomers, so I think he failed.
- Mark Teixeira: Tex is a company that achieved average orders in 2009 Yankees The team won the World Series, leading the AL with 39 home players and 122 RBIs that season. Would that be enough to overcome his failure to meet the power standards typically required in stats for first-base players? He finished with 409 homers and 1,298 RBI. He is probably also shy in strokes (1,862) and doubles (408). Fred McGriff and Don Mattingly existed for a while on the ballot, so perhaps Teixeira will have a seat. Then, Will Clark and Carlos Delgado fell again after one attempt, so maybe not.
- Jimmy Rollins: I think Rollins will wait a few more votes. As MVP and World Series champion, Rollins hit 2,455 hits, 1,421 runs, 511 doubles, 115 trebles, 231 masters, 936 RBIs (mostly from the top of the order, remember. ) and 470 steals. Of course, he’s at the soccer field of Nomar Garciaparra, Miguel Tejada and Troy Tulowitzki in JAWS, so it can be an uphill battle.
- Joe Nathan and Jonathan Papelbon: We’ll dig deeper into the closures later this week, but with Wagner on the rise, we have to take Nathan and Papelbon’s contenders seriously. Wagner is sixth in career saves, while Nathan is eighth and Papelbon is 10. Nathan beat 976 with 2.87 ERA (151 ERA+) and 1.12 WHIP in 923 innings of 1/3 his. Papelbon beat 808 with 2.44 ERA (177 ERA+) and 1.04 WHIP in 725 2/3 of his innings. For comparison, Trevor Hoffman had 1,133 hits with 2.87 ERA (141 ERA +) and 1.06 WHIP in 1,089 1/3 rounds. My guess is that Papelbon barely had enough workload and he quit. Regarding Nathan, I don’t think his name bears the same impact as Hoffman or Wagner. I would say he almost failed five percent. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if both survived.
- Tim Lincecum: The pinnacle of glory, isn’t it? It is only very short-lived. From 2008-11, Lincecum had 2.81 ERA (143 ERA+), 1.17 WHIP and 977 strikes in 881 2/3 innings. He made it to 4 consecutive All-Star teams and won Cy Youngs in a row. He will get a few votes, but Lincecum seems willing to join Denny McLain, Johan Santana and Bret Saberhagan as pitchers to win more Cy Youngs and not get five percent of the vote. of the Hall of Fame.
That means my official prediction is that it will analyze the following with 30 players in the BBWAA Hall of Fame vote:
- 10th and last votes (4): Schilling, Bonds, Clemens, Sosa
- Over five percent and moving to the 2023 ballot (15): Rolen, Vizquel, Wagner, Helton, Sheffield, Jones, Kent, Ramirez, Pettitte, Buehrle, Hunter, Abreu, Rodriguez, Rollins, Teixeira
- Under five percent and kicked off by ballot (10): Hudson, Crawford, Peavy, Morneau, Fielder, Nathan, Lincecum, Papelbon, Pierzynski, Howard
- 75+ percent and inducted into the Hall of Fame (1): Ortiz
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/2022-baseball-hall-of-fame-ballot-what-players-will-get-at-least-five-percent-and-who-will-be-cut/ 2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot: Which players will get at least five percent? And who will be cut?